Is this a sucker's rally? There was broad participation in today's rally but I am going to be cautious in believing that we will move higher. The bulls are continuing to show their strength, but I am still concerned with yesterday's spike in the VIX. It's like a boxer who has just been blasted in the chin and has fallen down. He might be able to get back on his feet, but it doesn't mean that he is going to quickly resume the fight without feeling the affects of the blow. He could also be in danger of getting the finishing "knockout" punch. I'm not predicting a knockout, but I am concerned that for the first time in several weeks we had fear enter back into the market. After such a big move up, we can't ignore that signal...even with the move up today. I might be going against other voices that you are listening to, but I am going to stick to my belief that there is more selling to come. I'm not going to dig in...I don't want to fight the trend if it wants to keep going higher...but for now I am looking at today's move as a suckers rally. Tighten up stops on bullish positions or sell some contracts to lock in profits.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
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Love the analogy! Thanks for the insight!
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