Sunday, June 28, 2009

WILL WE SELL OFF AGAIN THIS MONDAY?

The bears have seemed to control the last few Mondays but the bulls have been showing some resilience in the last few trading sessions. We might get a drop early on tomorrow and possibly another down Monday, but ultimately I think we might be moving towards the next resistance level around 930 on the S&P 500. Remember...in the next few months I think we will need to retrace the move up from March. How that eventually plays out is anyone's guess. For these daily (or almost daily) updates, I will assess what the market is telling me each day and try to pass that information on to you. I'm trying to post information that is helpful to both the position traders (two weeks to two months) and the day/swing traders (one to five days). The short term traders will assess the short term trend and play those quick moves up or down. They will "flip flop" on almost a daily basis because that's what the market is telling them to do. The position trader will try to capture more of the trend over a longer period of time. If I am a position trader, I might sit out this market or start applying more conservative strategies (like covered calls) to take advantage of the recent choppy price action of the market. Right now it looks like we won't start to get a more consistent trend until maybe this fall. The VIX has broken below the support of its recent range and the DOW and S&P 500 are back above their 50 day moving average (By the way, I use a simple 50 day moving average...not exponential). This is why I think we will move up in the short term (although Mondays have been a bit bearish lately). Technology has been the strong sector lately so look for ABC patterns that form on any retracements. Here are a list of bullish patterns from my scan: EXPE, STX, BIDU, NTES, NDN, EJ, AKS, STAR, FFIV, DGI, STEC, and RAX.

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