Thursday, October 1, 2009

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 30 MINUTES MAKES

I made that last posting about 20 to 30 minutes before the market closed. We ended up down 203 points on the DOW and 27 points on the S&P 500. The VIX spiked to over 28! We broke through some pretty significant support levels. We haven't yet broke the 50 day moving average, but that is jeopardy with bad news coming out and earnings season starting in just over a week. The ISM manufacturing index came out with an actual reading of 52.6. The estimate was 54. Last period was 52.9. The safest place is in cash right now. For those that want to trade the move down, use small amounts of capital and don't trade the recent market leaders. Put options on AAPL or GS would be much riskier than put options on the other stocks in their sectors. Don't lose a lot of money chasing this correction (which could possibly last a few weeks). Keep you cash so that when things start to move up again, you will be able to jump back in and make the easier money. If I see any great trading opportunities...bullish or bearish...I will post them on the blog. For now, I'm waiting to see how the market will react tomorrow. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment due out at 8:30 Eastern Time. It could be ugly. Keep in mind that we have wanted a pull back for several weeks. The divergences that I pointed out a while back warned of this type of sell off. We had gotten pretty far away from the 50 day moving average. Many stocks have pulled back nicely and still have nice strong uptrends...at least for now. By the way...we are done waiting on IBM. I just wanted to make that official in case any of you were wondering.

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