WHAT A FALL INTO THE CLOSE!!!!

I was in Jesse Webb's office about 45 minutes before the market close today. I remember glancing at CNBC on his T.V. screen and seeing the Dow up 120 points. We had a discussion on some work related stuff for about 30 minutes. With 15 minutes to go before the close, I glanced back at the T.V. screen to see the Dow only up about 40 points. That was almost a 100 point drop in 30 minutes!!! For most of the day the market (S&P 500) flirted with a break back above both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA. The sell off at the end of the day confirmed the sellers strength, but I can still see a strong battle taking place right now. As you know, I am currently bearish on the market. I did not like the second break below the 50 day MA that took place last Friday. You might even consider today's move a third break below the 50 day MA since the market was above it for most of the day. Although we have rallied since last Friday, the price action has looked a bit choppy while it has been rising. This is often a pattern setting up for another move down. On the other hand...I was watching to see if we could close back above the 50 day and 10 day moving averages. The market has reached some shorter term oversold levels and could bounce up a bit right here. It will be interesting how the market reacts to the Fed decision to hold its course on interest rates. The bullish view would be that the interest rates will still remain low which should continue to help stimulate the economy. The bearish interpretation would be that the Fed still thinks the economy is in trouble. Either way, the dollar will probably continue to get hammered. This could be good for potential bullish trades on commodities such as gold (GDX and AUY) and oil...or natural gas (which is the trade I like right now). APA and APC are still rallying off their 50 day MA. I'm still not sure if this is the beginning of another move higher or a "B" wave (suckers rally) that is setting up for one more move down. This is a similar pattern that is showing up on a lot of stocks right now. This only adds to the uncertainty of the next expected move of the market. Has the correction completed?...or do we have one more move down? The RUT and the Nasdaq look very weak while the DOW has yet to break below its 50 day MA. Who is leading? This is why it can be common to have conflicting opinions among a lot of good traders right now. Although I always reserve the right to change my mind from day to day, I've placed my bet already...I'm currently betting on another move down. However...if we show some strength in the next few days...or more importantly, if we get confirmation of a possible bullish move...I will be ready to trade that move as well. The VIX has pulled back a bit with this latest market rally, but it has pulled back with a possible bullish ABC pattern. It also rallied in that last hour off of a previous support level at about 26.60. I will be watching to see if it spikes tomorrow on a downward market move, or breaks that support area on any market rally. Clues, Clues, Clues...we'll keep looking for the clues.