Thursday, December 17, 2009

SO MUCH FOR TAKING A BREAK....

With the recent sell off in the market, there is a great reward to risk situation developing. If the S&P 500 finds support at the 1086 area again, I will probably call for an aggressive buy back into the market. With the 50 day MA sitting at 1087, there is a lot of support in this area. I've told you over the last couple of weeks that this sideways trend is most likely setting up for a breakout to the upside. This means that if the market holds support at the 1086 area, it could run up to at least 1116 again...if not higher. If it finally breaks the 1086 support, you could stop out of the trades. This would create at least a 2:1 reward to risk. I would like to see another 8-10 point drop in the S&P 500. This could happen tomorrow...but with RIMM earnings being good and December option expiration, the market could take a couple more days to get there. This could lead to one heck of a Santa Claus rally!!! This might be your chance to pay for all those Christmas gifts!! Watch for a rally in technology tomorrow. RIMM was trading at $71 in after hours trading after posting a great earnings number. AAPL should also rally off of that report. AAPL is sitting near a $188 support area. Although it is below its 50 day MA, it could rally up a bit. Be careful not to chase it. It will most likely gap up along with RIMM. I personally would love to set up a credit spread if it does gap up. Maybe the 190-185 spread. Let's follow up on a few of the successful picks over the last week. AEM has moved down about $9 since I re-entered the bearish trade. Remember that I was stopped out the first time. It has worked out to be a very nice trade. It is also a good example of getting a second chance. Just because you get stopped out doesn't mean that the opportunity is gone. I was just a bit early on that first entry. HPQ up $2. CAT - flat since the recommendation, but looking really nice if that 50 day MA holds. EOG up $6. RIMM - up $3 now, but could be up $11 tomorrow. CSCO down $1. SHOO - up $3 at peak...currently up about $1. AAPL - down about $5, but that could change tomorrow. Some of these picks were credit spread recommendations. TS - up about $1. MEE - up $3. MMM - up $2. TCK - up $2. OMG - flat. DSX - flat. Some bearish trades include HANS which is up $1 (that's not a good thing for a bearish trade), BAC down $1.50, and C down $.75 (which is a big move down for Citi...almost 20%). Not bad results for a choppy market. Some of those trades were spreads which are working great in these conditions. Happy expiration friday tomorrow and have a great weekend.

No comments:

Post a Comment