HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

Sorry it took me so long make the first posting of the new year. I hope everyone had a great holiday season and that you're ready to get back to work. I have received many e-mails over the last few days asking me what my opinion is on the big Monday rally. My opinion is that I am cautiously waiting to see what happens over the next few days. I don't like the current position of the market for any aggressive buying. We are back in a kind of "no man's land" on the chart of the S&P 500. All I can say is to be very careful with your trading decisions right now. This is a traditional time of the year when we get bombarded with opinions and commentary as to what is going to happen in the market for 2010. Keep in mind that most of these traders and analysts are being paid to have an opinion...especially during the start of a new year. How do you know which opinions have been well thought out and tested as opposed to those that were thrown together on a whim because the trader needed to beat the deadline. It is normal to feel like you need to do something impulsive during these first few trading days of the year. Some of the e-mails I've received over the last 24 hours have displayed the tone of "I'm missing the move, what should I do?" Professionals know that this is a time of the year when the amateurs are anxious to get into the market. They are practically begging for advice and direction...and the media markets (like CNBC) give it to them. Before you get caught up on believing all those opinions, see if you can get access to the predictions that were made this same time last year. See what type of success or failure that you would have had if you followed that advice. Many were predicting a very dire 2009. They were talking about possibly moving below 500 in the S&P 500. There was talk early on about the strength of the Biotech and Pharmaceutical sectors as possible leaders out of the decline. 2009 went almost nothing like what the "experts" thought would happen. It will probably be much the same this year. Trust the Trends!!! More so now than at almost any other time of the year...Trust the Trends. If you hear a positive analysis on XYZ stock and the chart pattern of XYZ stock looks great...trade it. If you hear a positive analysis, but the chart looks terrible...run from it. Move on to a trade that gives you the best chance of winning. I know you want to get your money to work starting this new year, but you must be smart on how and when to do that. You will get plenty of opportunities to make money this year...if you are smart. Be patient...resist the urge to just jump in because you feel you're missing out. I'm okay with you listening to opinions (I do it myself...and you are listening to me offer my opinions right now), but make sure you trust what the chart or the price action is telling you. Hope this helps. I do have one pick for today's post. I do like the current reward to risk position of AMZN. There are probably many others, but I'm still getting back into the swing of things. If AMZN holds that 50 day MA, it could quickly run up to around $145.