NO CONFIRMATION....YET.

The market keeps showing signs of a possible top, but it hasn't yet confirmed any of those signals. An area to watch is 1230 on the S&P 500. This is the location of the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2008 move down. There is also some previous support/resistance in this area from the summer of 2006 (support) and the summer/fall of 2005 (resistance). Many traders are watching this 1230 area as resistance. I would be cautious entering bearish trades without confirmation. The bears are still getting crushed as this market keeps inching its way upward. Many of the trades over the last week helped me dig out of a drawdown from the previous two months. Some of the winners from last week's recommendations include APA, EP, HAL, VLO, IGT, GDX, GFI, KBH, TOL, DHI, RST, ans VCI. Many of the other picks either didn't get confirmation (close above their 10 day MA), or they are just now getting that confirmation. ALTR and CREE recently gave confirmation. APC, NLR, KOG, NUE, MT, X, VRX, XBI, MYL, FCX, and T are very close to reaching the conformation. EBAY, CELG, and TEVA should be scratched off the list. They never gave confirmation and they are now below their 50 day MA. GENZ was the lone bearish pick (put option). It gave confirmation for the put option today as it closed below its 10 day MA. I'm still managing some of these trades, so I will try to have more picks later in the week. For those that have realized some of these gains, make sure you take some profits off the table. EP, HAL, KBH, TOL, and DHI made big moves. You need to cash in some of those gains. Don't get too greedy.