Today was actually looking like the end of the rally until the last 45 minutes of the day. That end of the day rally had some big volume behind it. The last two days has shown some real buyers entering the marketplace. Having said that, the Dow had risen 7 days in a row before today's 7 point loss. The one week rally has been one of the biggest in the last few years. Although the recent activity has looked bullish, the intermediate trend is still down. I'm still looking at the 1131 area as the point where I will start to turn bullish and the 1040 area where I will get more bearish. We are in a "no man's land" right now in the market. This explains why we are getting so much conflicting data. Some of the earnings numbers have looked great, but we were expecting good numbers. I expected to see some lower guidance for the upcoming quarters, but I haven't much of that yet. Keep in mind that we started to really get the negative news about the economy starting in April and May. It took about 4 months after the financial collapse of 2008 before we started to see the real economic effects. Although I'm still bearish, I know that the market doesn't care what I think. The market is not always rational. I don't have any short term forecasts for the market. I will continue to watch those two levels that I mentioned earlier. The excitement over the Goldman Sachs and BP news could help the market rally a bit more, but the market is overdue for at least a small pullback...if not a continuation of the downtrend. The futures are currently down a bit which could mean that the markets might at least open lower. July option expiration is tomorrow. Hope you don't have any July options. I have a few, but they are from some spreads that will be closed out tomorrow. Remember that weird things can sometimes happen on an expiration Friday. The market will often close a bit flat, but it has a tendency to swing back and forth throughout the day.
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