INTERESTING

This is just an interesting post that I read this morning. Don't go out and gamble on something like this. I haven't tried to verify any of this information...take that as a disclaimer. It fits into a lot of Elliott Wave and cycle analysis. By the way, I don't take a lot of this stuff too seriously. I am interested in patterns though.

by Spirit Of Truth
on Wed, 09/29/2010 - 13:23

Financial panics during the autumn are fairly common due to the seasonality of our species' repeating, severe mass mood swings. As is widely recognized, the stock market has a tendency to fall during the Fall. In fact, thirteen of the twenty worst single-day percentage drops in the DJIA occurred between late-September and early-November, i.e., 65% of the twenty largest daily drops in the stock market occurred in a time interval that constitutes less than 14% of the annual calendar:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Worst Single-Day Declines

(Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change)

Percentage
Date Decline
__________________________________________
October 19, 1987 -22.61%
October 28, 1929 -12.82%
October 29, 1929 -11.73%
November 6, 1929 -9.92%
December 18, 1899 -8.72%
August 12, 1932 -8.40%
March 14, 1907 -8.29%
October 26, 1987 -8.04%
October 15, 2008 -7.87%
July 21, 1933 -7.84%
October 18, 1937 -7.75%
December 1, 2008 -7.70%
October 9, 2008 -7.33%
February 1, 1917 -7.24%
October 27, 1997 -7.16%
October 5, 1932 -7.15%
September 17, 2001 -7.13%
September 24, 1931 -7.07%
July 20, 1933 -7.07%
September 29, 2008 -6.98%

More specifically, as discovered by market analyst Chris Carolan, the tendency is for panics to climax into around the 28th day of the 7th month on the annual lunar calendar, which is equivalent to Tishrei 26 on the lunar-based Hebrew calendar.

Note that during the autumn financial panic in 2008, when the current economic crisis kicked off, the implied volatility index, which is a gauge of overall fear on Wall Street, climaxed into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month.

This phenomenon can be more accurately ascertained by looking up the dates of key panic climaxes (including maximum DEFCON nuclear alerts in October of 1962 and 1973) using a lunar-based Hebrew calendar converter:

13 October 1857 = Panic of 1857 = 25th of Tishrei, 5618

24 September 1869 = Black Friday in 1869 = 19th of Tishrei, 5630

29 October 1929 = 1929 Stock Market Crash = 25th of Tishrei, 5690

26 October 1962 = Cuban Missile Crisis = 28th of Tishrei, 5723

Wed, 24 October 1973 = Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War = 28th of Tishrei, 5734

Mon, 19 October 1987 = 1987 Black Monday Crash = 26th of Tishrei, 5748

Fri, 13 October 1989 = 1989 Friday the 13th Crash = 14th of Tishrei, 5750

Tue, 28 October 1997 = 1997 Asian Financial Crisis = 27th of Tishrei, 5758

Thu, 8 October 1998 = 1998 Russian-LTCM Financial Crisis = 18th of Tishrei, 5758

Fri, 24 October 2008 = 2008 Financial Crisis = 25th of Tishrei, 5769

As can be seen above, the tendency is for mass panics to climax in the second half of Tishrei and into Tishrei 25-28 specifically. Typically the acute phase of mass panic begins after the full moon in the 7th lunar month, i.e., around Tishrei 15.

What about this year?

The full moon occurs on September 23rd and Tishrei 25-28 will take place between October 3rd and October 6th. Thus, we are now about to enter the time of year most vulnerable to mass hysterias.