Monday, May 23, 2011

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE DOLLAR

As the dollar keeps going up, it keeps the market from having any sustained rallies. If the dollar is starting a new uptrend, it will be hard to be bullish over the next few months. In the short term, I think the dollar could rally up a bit more. In the longer term, I think it will eventually continue the trend down. It looks like it is currently in a "C" wave of a bearish ABC pattern. The selling today brought the market to a short term oversold condition. This means that the market will probably rally up a bit tomorrow. I don't know the future, so I'm not saying it will. I'm just saying that the conditions are such that it should happen soon. This could provide an opportunity for a very short term bullish trade. The smarter trade might be to wait for a rally so that you can buy puts. With the close today below the 50 day MA, the bears have shown that they are stronger than the bulls. This means that the rallies will likely be a set up for moves down. Stocks that might bounce up a bit in the next few days include LULU, CAT, NFLX, VMW, NSC, WYNN, AMZN, and AAPL.

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