Monday, April 13, 2009

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU READ...OR HEAR

There are a lot of bearish articles being written out there, especially on the financial stocks. You might have also caught an interview or two on CNBC talking about how the bank stocks will ultimately continue to decline and that this latest move is just a rally within that larger downtrend. This may or may not happen...I don't know the future and I'm sure you don't either. The point of this blog entry is to remind you to be cautious about who you are listening to. If you look at the authors of these articles or interviews, you will find that they are often short the market or running Bear funds. There are probably some reputable people out there discussing the issue, but who can you trust? First of all, I think it is healthy to have some skepticism with any opinion being offered. It keeps you from naively drinking the kool aid. The most important thing for you to focus on is the trend. I have often said that "the price is always right". It really doesn't matter what the news says or what the current opinion is, the price is the only thing that matters. If the financials start to sell off and break below key support levels, I will be the first one to point out the possibility that the uptrend is over. Until that happens, trust the price. I'm not saying that this is a great place to enter a lot of new bullish positions...I've been mentioning the possibility of a market pullback for a few weeks...but I think you should trust the trend until it shows you signs that it could be reversing. Keep looking at any pullbacks as opportunities to get in...at least until those pullbacks start pulling back too much (in other words...you get stopped out). It's okay to listen to opinions and market commentary... but just remember that the "price is always right". WPI could be a new one to keep an eye on. It has pulled back to its 50 day moving average and the short term trend is up. FAS still looks pretty good, but wait for the pullbacks. I also like NUE. NFLX is one from the past that keeps going...and going...and going. The energy stocks could soon be back in play. Keep an eye on them. I've heard all the reports of inventory levels still too high, but things can change quickly...we were also supposed to be paying $5 a gallon in gas by now. Trust the price action and right now the price is breaking above resistance on a lot of the energy stocks.

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