SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

WOW what a month of trading. I just can't believe this, I had my biggest day EVER in over three years of very active trading. My entire account gained 14% in ONE day (9/30/11).

For the month of September, I am up 38%.

My account is up 21% overall in 2 1/2 months of trading your system.

And astute math nerds will notice the disparity between September and the totals. That was due to me jumping in the first month having taken no classes yet, and losing money in the beginning. Let this be a warning to newbies, play it safe for a while with paper trading till you gain confidence and learn the proper skills Jerry teaches. (I am still learning myself).

None the less, ALL of this success is because of your excellent training and outstanding insight in your blog. I wish I had found you 3 years ago. While I sold some of my puts tonight at the close, I still am riding this downtrend.

Mr. Ed

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry - I also want to thank for all helpful feedback you have given me. I feel that I have received the best instruction and training available anywhere. Your recorded lectures and classes are the best -- bar none. I had no experience in trading options prior to your course. I am very excited about what I have learned and very anxious to apply all of your teachings. I certainly would recommend your OPTION MAGIC course to anyone who is serious about learning to trade options. I found your course to be very motivating, interesting and challenging.

THANK YOU

LARRY W.

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

You have to love those Fibonacci ratios! After your Fibonacci class yesterday, I charted your recommendation on LVS. I entered the trade as the price had moved below the 50 day MA and the 10 day EMA. I decided on an aggressive entry on a put just above the 61.8 and set my PT / Limit at the 38.2. Within the first half hour of the market opening this morning, my OCO order was triggered and I was up 240 bucks! After the trade had been completed, I saw the price bounce off of the support at the 38.2 level and retreat back up. By setting my limit at the 38.2, I really maximized my profit on this trade.

First of all, thanks for your recommendations. While I'm only half way through your first course, I have been doing some limited trading and I am up about 1200 over the past week. Of course, all of the paper trading has really helped, but applying the lessons in real time with real money has been the best reinforcement for me.

Chris P.

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

Thanks so much for your education, it is slowly coming together. Below are my most recent trades:

• XLF put 71% gain 9/23
• GE put 56% gain
• CVX put 46% gain
• TZA call 51% gain

The market started to turn up 9/23 so I sold out of these positions to keep my profit.

Mr. Ed

300

We just reached 300 followers of this blog! I just wanted to recognize this milestone and thank each of you for following. I hope that you are seeing success and enjoying your trading.

ALMOST THERE

Today's reversal could signal the beginning of the next move down. There is still a chance we could rally up to that 1220 area again, but many of the individual charts look like they are ready to drop right now. The financials look very bearish again so start looking at those FAZ calls. If the market gaps up at the open, it would really set up some nice reward to risk trades on FAZ and TZA. AMZN and CMG both had bearish engulfing patterns today. They don't have to drop immediately, but it should happen very soon. We still have to respect the 1120 support area, but I don't think it is going to hold this time. LVS is another put option trade. It should move down to around $37 (or lower) on this next move down. The SLV may drop a bit more if the market moves down to 1040, but I still think it is at or near its bottom...at least that is my opinion right now.

SNAP BACK RALLY

I think this was the snap back rally that we were waiting for. With the strength of the reversal today, we could move up a bit further tomorrow. I don't think that we will go much higher on this rally. There is always the possibility that we can go back up to 1220 again, but I feel that too many traders out there are expecting that. I think we might rally up just a bit more, then drop down to 1040. Silver made a big reversal today. Gold wasn't too bad, but silver was much better. If you are entering a new trade on the SLV, I'd put a stop below today's low (about $27.41). There is a good chance that the SLV could spike up pretty good within the next 30 days. If you already have an SLV position, you should see a recovery very soon...and hopefully a nice profit after that. If we get a decent move up in the market tomorrow, start looking at the FAZ and TZA calls again. I'd like both of those to get closer to their 50 day MA so that the reward to risk for the trade is better.

SUCCESS STORY

Hi Jerry

As i promised posting my great success thanks to you

I bought sold profit

20 gmcr puts at $7 $12 $10,000

35 LVS puts at $1.20 $3.5 $8,000

50 vix calls at $1.30 $ 2.4 $5,500

20 fosl puts at $6.90 $12.5 $11,900

40 tza calls at $ 6.55 $ 15.8 $37,000

20 sina puts at $8.7 $ 20.2 $23.000

20 tza calls at $ 4,35 $ 8.5 $8,300

20 cmg puts $16.6 $20 $6,800

15 vmw puts at $ 5 $ 10.20 $7,800

20 crm puts at $7.80 $16.8 $18,000

30 tza calls at $ 6.50 $ 14.10 $ 22,800

30 bidu puts at $ 3.2 $10.2 $24,900

20 puts wynn at $ 2.85 $7.85 $9,200 total $ 193,400 profit

now the bad news . i am down $90,000 in slv but i am still in the trade and i hope slv will go back up , my down side risk is small because the value of my options are down big but i still have hope to see slv up. luckily most of my calls are long term.
thanks,

Naseem

SUCCESS STORY

Hi Jerry,

I have another success story! I'm going to have to start calling you the "Oracle of Utah". You were perfect in your reading of the market last week! For those out there reading this...know that Jerry is an amazing teacher and his technical analysis is uncanny. Since I started trading about 4 months ago (I'm completely new to trading), I've had ups and downs, but I was continually learning and tried to limit my losses on bad trades as Jerry teaches. In the last four months, thanks to Jerry, I've turned my original 11K investment into over 25K. That's over 100+% return in just 4 months!!! Anyway, here is the latest success thanks to Jerry:

Bought 5 contracts of TAZ Oct 45 calls at various times on 9/14 for an average price of $7.34

Sold on 9/22 3 contracts at $12.30, and 2 contracts at $13 for a total profit of $2577.37

Bought 5 contracts of FAZ Oct 60 Calls on 9/14 at different times with average contract price of $8.664

Sold 2 on 9/22 2 contracts at $12, 2 contracts at $16.65 and 1C at $17 for total profit of $3013.34 !!

Bought on 9/14 and 9/15, 10 contracts of QQQ Oct 58 Puts (note: not on Jerry blog but to me it had same chart pattern as the other two recommendations above) at average price of $3.34

Sold on 9/22, 5 contracts at $4.51 and 5 contracts at $5.2 for at total profit of $1456.90

Thanks so much Jerry!!!! Your students really appreciate your knowledge and skill! -Mike from Colorado

SUCCESS STORY

Hi Jerry,

Thank you for the recent recommendations and guidance with respect to market activity. The FAZ recommendations proved to be particularly helpful as follows:

8/30: Bought FAZ Oct call at $8.20; sold 9/6 at $17.63; a $937 gain

9/19: Bought FAZ Oct call at $8.20; sold 9/22 at $18.70; a $1044 gain

Both trades exceeded 110% ROI! As a new trader (finished course 1 back in June), who has struggled with the way the market has chopped sideways in the 1st few months I have been trading, I needed to hit a couple out of the park! I am very grateful for your blog and all the help the course provided. Thank you.

Take Care,

Bob S.

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

9/20 bought FAZ - 2 contracts @ 11.34

9/22 sold FAZ - 2 contracts @ 22.55

We just started using money to trade about 1 month ago.

Thanks to your classes/blogs!

Jim & Jane

JERRY'S SILVER UPDATE

Many of you have been following Chaz's recommendations for a period of time now. He knows the silver business. I, on the other hand, don't know much about anything....but I do know how to read charts. This doesn't mean that I'm always right. Many of you have emailed me over the weekend seeking an update from Chaz on the silver situation since silver has been in a free fall lately. Chaz did send me an update which I just posted. There are a couple of points that I want to make. First, there is a difference between fundamental analysis or indicators and technical analysis or indicators (charts). Many times these indicators are compatible, but there are times when they differ. Chaz is an expert when it comes to the fundamental analysis of the silver market. He has been in the business for over 30 years. I trust his opinion. The fundamental situation in silver...and gold...shows that demand should increase as the uncertainty of world and national events take hold of the market over the next year...or two. History shows that when there is extreme uncertainty in the market, the first move is usually into U.S. Treasuries. As the investors sit in this safe but lowly profitable instrument, the pressure starts to build. The pressure of deciding how long to stay there. No financial firm's clients want to hear that they didn't make any return on their money for the year because they were in Treasuries...especially after they are charged a 3% management fee. There is pressure on these firms to find another "safe" investment with a better return. This is when those firms turn to gold and, more recently, silver. You can look at the recent rise in Treasuries by looking at the TLT. You can see how Treasuries have started a nearly parabolic move. This has coincided with the dramatic drop in silver and gold...and the overall market. We should start to see these trends reverse. The question on everyone's mind is when?

It is often said that the fundamentals tell you what to buy and the technicals tell you when to buy them. In other words, the charts can help you with the timing. One of the things that has bothered me over the last few months, on the gold and silver charts, is that we appeared to have a wave A down (the May move in silver and the August move in gold) which was followed by a wave B up. It felt like we needed to get one more move down (wave C) before we could get the next big rally that we were all expecting. This was one of the reasons why I recommended puts on the GLD a few weeks ago. The silver chart was harder to read since the "B" wave back up was somewhat erratic. I could see a scenario back in July where silver could have completed it's ABC pattern and was possibly on the next move higher. I entered a trade on the SLV in case the rally was underway. Some of these early bullish trades worked out okay, but I was also stopped out of a few. We (Chaz and I) were expecting the possibility that silver could drop before making that next move up. On September 19th, the SLV made it's first solid close below its 50 day MA. The trend was still up, but the chart was saying that the sellers were gaining control. This doesn't mean that a downtrend will follow, but it usually tells me not to add any new bullish positions....and to make sure I have stops in place for my current positions (if it was in your plan to use a stop. In a call option trade, you might have been willing to risk the entire amount in the trade). As the selling increased, it became apparent that we could be in the "C" wave of a larger bullish ABC pattern. If you look at the longer term chart (weekly chart) of the SLV and GLD, you can see this possible bullish ABC pattern more clearly. The next question would be, "How much further can we fall?". One thing I pointed out in an earlier posting was that there were too many people out there saying to buy gold on this drop. When I see a lot of people recommending to buy something after a big drop, it usually means that it isn't done dropping. Stocks, in particular, tend to bottom out when no one wants to buy them. I think that gold and silver will continue to drop (in the short term) until people are afraid to buy them. Based on a Fibonacci projection measurement of that possible bullish ABC pattern, the SLV could still drop to around the $22 to $26 range. My theory is that the market will continue to drop to the 1040 area on the S&P 500 and that silver (and gold) could also continue to drop (although gold and silver could stop dropping before the market stops dropping). At that point, I could see the market start to rally. If the market starts to rally, I can easily see money managers out there getting out of Treasuries and moving into gold and silver. This is where I could see the big rally taking place in silver and gold. It would also likely move just as fast to the upside and it did to the downside. That would keep Chaz's end of the year target on track.

This finally leads me to my second point. No one knows the absolute future movement of a stock (or commodity). We can give a probabilistic outlook (which will often be right), but we can't give an absolute outlook. You can never keep betting your entire account on one probabilistic outcome. It may work many times in a row, but eventually it isn't going to work. It's like betting it all on black at the roulette table. You could be right 10 times in a row, but eventually it is going to land on red. When that happens, you could end up losing everything. Money management is the most important part of trading. Trade management is second. If you used good money and trade management techniques with Chaz's latest recommendations, you would still have a large portion of your trading account ready to capitalize on a future rally. You might still have a draw down, but it would likely be in a more acceptable range (15% to 25%). If you didn't use good money and trade management, you could be stuck with a 60% to 80% draw down in your account....hoping for a rally to bail you out. I think that a rally will likely come to bail you out, but what if it doesn't? If you survive this drop, I hope you take your money and trade management more seriously....because you might not get bailed out the next time. That's assuming that you get bailed out this time. Chaz is no more a market psychic than I am....but he is good. I'll let you know what the charts are telling me as I watch this trade over the next few months. We will also continue to welcome any updates from Chaz on any fundamental changes to the silver trade.

SILVER UPDATE

This post is from Chaz...a commodities trader that writes a monthly newsletter on the precious metals market. He has given me permission to post it on my blog. As a disclaimer...I (and Option Magic/Market Trend Signal) are not responsible for the content or recommendations in this newsletter. Also...a lot of this information relates to trading the actual commodities. There may be some terms or strategies that you don't recognize. This update is meant to be an information guide for those of you that are trading gold and silver...or just the gold and silver ETF's like the GLD or the SLV. This commentary is opinion and analysis. You must still use good money management and trade management principles. You must also read the charts. No one...I'll repeat...no one knows the exact future of any event on Wall Street. You must still do your due diligence.

Hello again traders. This is the first time I have ever made commentary so close to prior commentary. So many questions in my email. Where to begin?......Throughout today, I saw many news blurbs and heard many comments on the Internet and CNBS...oops, I meant CNBC..... that said traders were dumping gold and silver in favor of cash. One talking head said the COMEX pits were filled with panicked sellers. Another said the Hedge Funds were abandoning the metals. NONE of this is true. We are watching a computer rigged High Frequency take down program designed to trigger a black box cascade of the Hedge Funds computerized pre-programmed asset and capital protection liquidation program. I guess I should explain this....Hedge Funds have computer trading programs that are designed to automatically buy or sell when certain price levels are hit. These predetermined price levels are known as "Black Boxes". The banksters, who sell massive quantities of contracts and options have created computer programs that trade with each other at high frequency on even a fraction of a penny's movement in price. These programs can trade thousands of trades per second. I cannot prove it but I do believe these programs can recognise the buy and sell orders from other computers which tell it which computers it is authorized to trade with and which ones it's not. I believe these programs are allowed to make a paltry token amount of trades with "unauthorized" computers so that a few small orders are filled so as to make it appear that the trading is fair. To prove my point, consider this..... Why are these computers able to make thousands of trades at the theoretic value of an option yet when you or I place a trade order, we have to make offers well above theoretic value if we want to get filled? You see the point now?.....These programs are designed to trade at such high speeds as to negate and ignore real trades placed by traders. As the price drops lower and lower, a black box trigger is hit causing many positions to be liquidated. The computers recognise this and begin to trade faster until the next black box it hit. This is repeated again and again causing a cascade of black box sell offs until the predetermined desired price level is reached at which point trading slows down and is stabilized and "contained". Interestingly enough, this phenomenon only seems to occur a few days to a week before option expiration. The Hedge Funds did not willingly sell their positions. They were tricked out of them. ........... I've said several times now that this retracement will be VERY short lived. Here is the proof. It was announced today that MARGINS on metals are being RAISED again ! ! ! I've lost count of how many times margins have been raised in the last 12 months buy I think its about 8 times now. Anyway , gold margin was $9450 per contract and is now $11,475 and silver was $21,600 and is now raised to $24,975. Now let me ask you a question. If we lose 20% of the value of a commodity in two days, why is a rise in margin levels necessary? And why did this raise come out of the blue without any prior hints or suggestion that it even might be raised? Not interesting enough for you? How about this? A number of central banks were happily buying large quantities of gold in the 1750 to 1850 range in the last few months. Gold is now on sale below 1675. If you were running a central bank and wanted out of dollars ,would you stop buying and wait for the price to get above 1750 before you start buying again? I'm just asking. .....One other little thing, I've been watching and trading gold and silver for 32 years now and I can tell you that this take down is the most brazen and criminal act I have ever seen in commodity trading. It is also the most aggressive and vicious I've ever seen. There is NOTHING to compare it to. ....Back to the margins. Because margins are being raised, it is likely that many traders will be forced to liquidate positions to raise capital to cover the new margin levels on Monday. Just before expiration. What convenient timing for the banksters. We may well see silver drop even more. Perhaps to $27. The story will likely be told Sunday night about 7pm in the Hong Kong market. .....I am very happy to say that I was filled on ALL of my outstanding orders this morning and I am prepared to buy more on Sunday night in the international market. Make no mistake here, this market will not stay suppressed. It will snap back very quickly and probably exceed its recent highs by a wide margin in as little as 30 days. This kind of market can make you rich very quickly or drive you into poverty just as fast if you don't know what you are doing. For the umpteenth time, PLEASE do NOT trade more than you are willing to lose. This is a rigged market. We have become very adept at guessing what is most likely to happen but the last few days have reminded us that we can not PREDICT exactly what a market will do. It seems my recent statement about volitile price swings coming sooner than anyone was prepared for was dead on. I think it's only going to get worse from here on out. But after the 27th it will be in both directions. This is an excellant market to play both sides but this should only be attemped by seasoned traders with deep pockets. If you are new to trading, don't even think about it. IF you can get filled, the Dec 30 and 35 calls are outstanding buys as are the March 40's. It's late, thats it, I'm tired, I'm done. Good luck and happy trades.....Chaz....Sept 24, 2011

SUCCESS STORY

hello genius (Jerry)

Your blog on Tuesday during the market hours was the best I have ever witnessed.

I bought

30 calls tlt at 3.55 sold at 6.5 profit $ 8,800

50 puts anr at 1.76 sold 3.76 profit $ 10,000

20 call tza at 4.35 sold at 8.5 profit $ 8,300

i was out of there trade on Thursday . wait for my Friday trades you will love them

thanks Nassem

IS THE WORLD COMING TO AN END?

This was the drop that we were anticipating over the last two weeks. Near the last hour of the day it looked like we would close below that key 1120 support level. This would have ensured a quick drop to that next support level around 1040. With the late session rally back above 1120, it looks like the market could stage a snap back rally tomorrow...or at least in the near future. These snap back rallies are normal and almost always follow a big drop in the market. Any rally would likely provide another opportunity to make money. If you didn't take profits on any of your bearish positions today, you could end up giving that profit back. Professionals take profits...especially on a big down day (or two big down days). Pigs get slaughtered so don't be a pig. I don't expect any potential snap back rally to last long, but you do have to respect the fact that the market could rally back up to that 1200 area. I am expecting a larger rally in the market to take place, but I don't think that will happen until we test the 1040 support area. For those looking for a new trade, my advice would be to be patient. I'd wait for a small rally or a close below 1120. For those looking to jump into gold and silver, you should also be patient. All I heard today on CNBC was to buy gold, buy gold, buy gold. When you hear a lot of people telling you to buy something (after a big drop), it usually means that it isn't done dropping. Stock usually bottom when the buying interest is low....or in other words, the buying confidence is low. As long as the dollar keeps gaining strength, it is going to be harder for gold (and other commodities like silver and oil) to mount any significant rally. As the market nears that 1040 area, I would then look at gold and silver for a potential bullish trade. At that point I could see the market rallying, commodities rallying, and the dollar correcting. For those that made money on this latest drop, please send me your success stories. As always, is doesn't matter if those success stories were from my blog picks or your own trades.

SILVER UPDATE

This post is from Chaz...a commodities trader that writes a monthly newsletter on the precious metals market. He has given me permission to post it on my blog. As a disclaimer...I (and Option Magic/Market Trend Signal) are not responsible for the content or recommendations in this newsletter. Also...a lot of this information relates to trading the actual commodities. There may be some terms or strategies that you don't recognize. This update is meant to be an information guide for those of you that are trading gold and silver...or just the gold and silver ETF's like the GLD or the SLV. This commentary is opinion and analysis. You must still use good money management and trade management principles. You must also read the charts. No one...I'll repeat...no one knows the exact future of any event on Wall Street. You must still do your due diligence. I have been a bit disturbed lately to hear of students that are risking everything on these recommendations. That is not what I have taught you. I teach trading...not gambling. If you are going to ignore my teachings, you better be willing to take responsibility for your decisions. If you have not had my coaching classes, please do not trade any of the recommendations in this blog. You need to know what you are doing first. Trading is more than just stock picks. That said, I always appreciate Chaz's opinions and commentary. Thank you Chaz!

Good evening traders. My, oh my, what an interesting day. There is only one way to describe today's action. WHAT A WONDERFUL GIFT!!!!! I hope most of you realized what was happening and loaded up on Dec and March calls. There is so much to tell you that I don't know where to begin so I'll just dive in and trust you've learned enough by now to put it all together. .......... Today is a classic textbook example of why we do not trade contracts. This mornings open on the Dec contract was 39.67 and the close was 36.57. That's a 310 point loss. You would have lost $15,500.00 on EACH contract in your portfolio. Right now, your broker would be screaming at you to sell your house to cover your massive margin call. ...But... we own options, not contracts. Our options are temporarily out of the money but we still OWN them and no one is yelling at us. ....What we saw today was computer rigged high frequency trading designed to shake traders out of their positions by trying to panic them into selling. I don't think the shorts were able to buy back very many positions today. The ferocity of this attack was a little surprising but also VERY telling. It is very clear that the shorts are in a panic stage and want to cover as many positions as they can. I'm pretty sure the 30 year long manipulation in the metals market will end very soon . Possibly on Sept 27th. Thats expiration day......Now this is interesting. The uptrend line on the daily and weekly Dec chart has been broken but not on the monthly. That line is VERY solid. This bodes well. It means that this market is about to get VERY volitile. Today may well have been the opening gate. A few days ago I told you that any sell off would be very short lived. I managed to get filled on a very nice position today but I had to pay almost twice its theoretic value. I have outstanding orders more than double those I got filled on so I hope the shorts hit this market again tomorrow but I don't have my hopes up. I think it is probable that the worst is over but I hope not. I'd really like to see the rest of my orders filled. My offers are well above theoretic value. The very fact that these orders are not being filled makes it clear that panic is in session in the church of the shorts. They have raised the dead only to discover they have raised themselves. ......Let me make this VERY clear.... This sell off WILL be VERY short lived. I will not be surprised to see silver back near the 40.50 area by next Tuesdays close. Whether or not it is , is irrelevant. What matters is this market is about to get VERY volitile. Remember to take profits as I suggested when the targets are hit. Reread the other days newsletter to reconsider my suggestions. Trade as you wish but please trade wisely. Trade with your mind, not your emotions. Trade well my friends.................The following is intended for Jerry's students. Hi, everyone. The above comments are for commodity futures traders who are trading long term positions. Jerry does not teach this type of trading . If you are following his suggestions to trade along with what I teach ,then you should be trading the Jan SLV. I would strongly suggest that that you listen carefully to Jerry's suggestions in his blog and get in and out of this market as he recommends following the moving averages. This market may well be about to get wild and wooley. If you are unable to handle the mental stress of trading in a market you may not understand well,then I suggest you consider sitting on the sidelines and playing a calmer market. I've waited 30 for this cycle to come around. It's now here and things are going to be very exciting over the next few years. I'm not 100% sure the gate just opened but I am certain we just heard the trumpet blow. Its past post time. The race is beginning. Happy trades....Chaz

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

I took course 1 and 2 during the spring early summer time frame. I have been doing a lot of trading since.

I purchased 10 contracts of ZMH Oct. 55.0 Put at $1.55 on 9/19 and sold the contracts on 9/22 @ $3.50 . That was a nice $1950 profit in 3 days.

On your recommendation I purchased on 9/15 TZA 10 contracts of Oct. 46.0 Call at $5.50 and sold 5 of those contracts on 9/22 at $11.25. I now have all of my money back on this trade and I am now working on pure profit.

I also purchased on 9/20 TZA 10 contracts of Oct. 49.0 Call at $4.65 and sold 5 contracts on 9/22 at $9.70. Again I am now working on pure profit. I have all of my money back on this trade.

These are just my completed trades over the last few days. I have about 10 other transactions still at work and making money on all of them. I have one trade still going that I am making 300% right now an it is still working. Tomorrow I will be taking some money off of the table on this one.

You and your classes have been invaluable.

Thanks,

Dan

SUCCESS STORY

Hey Jerry,

I took your level 1 class in options trading. Great class and I have done several trades now almost text book on the ABC patterns, and I have to say my new best friend in town is this Fibonacci Guy, great fellow (LOL). I have to say I have improved my trading quite a bit, and with better trading results take care of themselves. You have a great blog and you are a wonderful teacher. If I regret anything about that class is that I should have taken it way earlier.

Here are some trades I did in the last few days:

Bought FAZ at 51 and sold it at 63 right after the bullish pattern, then waited a bit and bought FAZ again at 56 and sold today at 71. May be I sold it too quickly but with this volatility I took the profits just like the professionals do right. I did similar operation with BGZ , bought at 40.49 and sold at 47, and also bought TZA at 41.98 and sold it at 55 today. Also had BIDU short at 142 and covered it today at 129 right above the 200MA.

Again, Thanks a Million Jerry. I am signing up for your next class as soon as the crazy working schedule is over.

brgds

Roman

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

I just closed my positions today. I have been watching the market and yes it can go lower, but I decided it was time to take these in, since time might be running out and I am on vacation tomorrow.

43% return on CVX OCT 100 PUT

12.4% Return on SPY OCT 123 PUT

20.4 % Return on TZA OCT 44 PUT

28.8% Return on FAZ OCT 57 PUT

Overall a $2500 return or 23.6% on 4 trades in 9 days.

I placed these trades when the market shot up, so I was over 50% under water at one point, and bounced back in 3 days. The emotional rollercoaster is tough. I am happy with my gains. I hope next time I put some more thinking into the risk/reward aspect.

Lets see what happens tomorrow and next week. SP500 certainly tested 1120 and there are big sell offs everywhere. Looking forward to your update on today’s sell off.

This is a good start and yes, the system works. I needed some success after slumping all year long. I am excited to keep trading and making more moves.

Have a great weekend,

Andy

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry, below are my realized gains with only one small loss occurring within 5 trading days. Since we gapped down, I exited TZA before my sell limit but all others hit my mark with an automotive execution. I have another $2,200 unrealized gain that I am comfortable waiting for. Thank you for the advice. Ken

Description	Bought	Sold	Gain/ (Loss)
10 GE puts	1,377.49	2,192.34	814.85
5 FAZ calls	3,963.74	10,960.98	6,997.24
5 XOM puts	2,208.74	3,836.12	1,627.38
2 IBM puts	1,551.49	1,138.48	(413.01)
10 PFE puts	1,237.49	1,492.36	254.87
5 TZA calls	3,513.74	7,761.05	4,247.31
Total Gain			$ 13,528.64

FED NOT HELPING MUCH THIS TIME

The market sold off heavy after the Fed announcement came out on Wednesday. We closed at the lows of the day and on higher than average volume. This means that the market will likely continue lower. For those that traded the FAZ, I'd like to see some of those success stories. That was a big move. The TZA should continue to rally higher as the market trends lower. One bit of concern is that the market dropped to the lower range support line of this sideways channel (see the chart on the 9/9/11 blog posting). The market could possibly chop sideways right here if that support area holds. If we drop below it...and almost any move down tomorrow would drop us below it, we should see the S&P 500 test the 1120 area...or lower.

POTENTIAL REVERSAL

I usually don't post during market hours, but it is looking like this market is getting ready to move lower. We are a little over half way through the trading day. The market is currently up about 132 points (Dow). We are hitting some major resistance here. The Dow Transportation Index is up only fractionally. The financial stocks are mostly flat. The VIX is at a major support area. The volume is very low. Although the market is up, very few stocks are participating. These are all signals of a potential reversal. We'll see if the market cooperates. SINA looks like a good bearish trade. It should move down to around $84 within the next few weeks. The options on SINA are very expensive. I'm recommending the Oct. 92.50/97.50 Bear Put Spread. If you don't know how to do this spread, plan on taking my Course 2 class on advanced option strategies. That spread will get the cost of the trade down to about $2.80 per contract...and still have the potential for a 100% return. Email me at jerry@myoptionmagic.com if you are interested.

SUCCESS STORY

Hi Jerry

As you recommended I bought 50 gld puts at $ 3.40 , sold them after five days at $ 5.75 and made $11,750 . Great call . Now I am long slv for a long term as chaz recommended and hopefully will pay off well , thanks Jerry .

Naseem

CRITICAL AREA

We are in a critical area on the chart of the S&P 500. We are about 7 points away from that 1227 resistance area I pointed out last week. There is some resistance around 1220 from the April 2010 high. The 50 day MA is also very near this area (about 1228). The market has been up for 5 day in a row which is rare. Friday was September option expiration so it's hard to get a good feel on the future direction based on the price movement on an expiration day. Monday should give us a better idea of where things are headed next. I still like the charts on those recommended stocks from last week. I'd like to see the market sell off and close near the lows of the day (on higher volume) before getting too aggressive with new trades.

STILL GOING

The reversal last Monday gave a strong indication that the market could rally. We are now nearing the end of that rally. It looked like today might start that reversal as we entered into the final hour. The market was pulling back from its highs and the volume was very light. However, things changed in that last hour. Volume picked up a bit and the market ended up closing at the highs of the day. This leads me to believe that we could still rally up a bit more. We took out the 1200 area, so the next resistance to look for would be the 1227 area. We are only 18 points away from that area. The 50 day MA is also in this area. If the market ends up gapping up then selling off tomorrow or Monday, this would indicate that the correction could be over and the downtrend could resume. Keep in mind that it is also possible that we might chop sideways within this range for the next few weeks. If you aren't in any trades right now, start getting ready to set up some put option trades. It's hard to know exactly when the next move down will start, but it looks like we are getting very close. The GLD put option trade has worked out pretty well. It is down almost $8 since the recommendation. Start taking profits off the table on that trade. You could try to hold onto a few contracts in case it goes lower, but start to take profits on the bulk of the position. Don't try to chase this market to the upside because you would likely be late. I love the reward to risk on these put option trades: PFE, XOM, GE, IBM, and BA. I also love the reward to risk on these call option trades: FAZ and TZA. Both of these are slightly below their 50 day MA. You could wait for them to get back above that moving average before getting into a trade. The market could go up a bit higher...but when it turns back down, you will want to consider some of these trades.

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

You suggested some trades in your blog and following are my results. I got out of the final pieces to these trades this morning as the market started to rally:

• FAS put bought 8/11 sold 9/6 for 6% gain
• XLF put bought 8/11 sold 9/6 keeping 5 calls till 9/13 for 23% gain
• FAZ call bought 10 contracts 8/30 sold 9 on gap up 9/6, (which you said was a gift), sold last call 9/13 for 213% gain

Thanks for your awesome blog and your great teaching classes.

Mr. Ed

SUCCESS STORY

Good Morning Jerry: My Gld triggered this AM and I made $187.00 on the one contract it took a lot of discipline to hang in there but I trusted your knowledge. Mae P.

SILVER UPDATE

This post is from Chaz...a commodities trader that writes a monthly newsletter on the precious metals market. He has given me permission to post it on my blog. As a disclaimer...I (and Option Magic/Market Trend Signal) are not responsible for the content or recommendations in this newsletter. Also...a lot of this information relates to trading the actual commodities. There may be some terms or strategies that you don't recognize. This update is meant to be an information guide for those of you that are trading gold and silver...or just the gold and silver ETF's like the GLD or the SLV. This commentary is opinion and analysis. You must still use good money management and trade management principles. You must also read the charts. No one...I'll repeat...no one knows the exact future of any event on Wall Street. You must still do your due diligence. Thank you Chaz...and have a very Happy Birthday!!!!


Good morning Traders ! Yes, I have heard your many cries for comments. My email is filled with them. I have deliberately refrained from making any comments these last few weeks because I saw NO REASON to change my opinion on this market. Time has proven me correct. This market has preformed exactly as I expected it would within a 10% margin of error. (or less)...........Today is the occasion of my 54th birthday. The Good Book tells us that it is more blessed to give than to receive so with that thought in mind ,I wish to celebrate my advancing decrepitude by giving you my best call on how to play this market over the next few months. So , without any further ado , lets get to it. .....Some time ago , I said you could expect to see $100 swings in gold and $5 swings in silver in a single day. This came to pass some weeks ago. I am now telling you that this will soon be the norm. Maybe sooner than anyone is prepared for. Triple witch is once again upon us which means this is a buying opportunity. I made it loud and clear that the December 40 silver calls are the place to be. For Jerry's followers, that would be the Jan 40 SLV calls. These calls are in the money and pricey but I am VERY confident that they will be stellar performers. An interesting note here, triple witch falls a week before option expiration this month. A rare event. Hard to call how this will effect the closing price of the October options but I suspect a drop in gold to perhaps the $1750 level yet interestingly enough I don't really see much further drop in silver from its current level of around $40.50 . Regardless, whatever the metals drop too, it will be VERY SHORT LIVED. BUY YOUR CALLS NOW. You may not get another chance. Silver is about to make a VERY large move. I have NO DOUBT there will be a number of attempts by both the short selling banks and the government to interfere in this market to keep prices suppressed but I do not believe they are going to be able to control it. Time and this platform do not allow me the luxury of explaining the many variables affecting this market so I must ask that you consider my track record for accuracy over the last year and trust what I am saying here. And, YES, a very large amount of my money is where my mouth is. I'm not in this for chump change or beer money. I am positioned to make a very healthy 7 digits on this move. I DO NOT recommend you go all in on this. Trade ONLY what you are willing to lose. Good money management is mandatory for a successful trader. As a side note, watch for the banking sector to take a really big hit in the next few months. The big question everyone wants to know is where do I think the metals will end the year at? I hate sticking my neck out on this but...Gold...$2000 is highly probable, $2250 is likely and $2500 is certainly possible. Silver..... $55 to $60 is very highly probable, $80 is likely and $100 is certainly possible. Especially on an intra day move. Does that mean the metals will hold these levels? NO!!! Corrections are inevitable and WILL occur. The best way to play this market is to buy 10 plus options . Sell one third of your position when the first target is hit. Wait for the correction (if there is one) and the continuing rally to the second target to sell a second one third of your position. You should have VERY heavy profits at this point. If the third target is reached sell only 2/3rds or your remaining position and hold the last 1/10 position for a parabolic moonshot possibility. Do NOT expect this market to play out this way. The odds are very favorable that the first two targets will be reached but the last target is an educated guess that is very likely but has no guarantee. Once again, I do not make predictions on what a market will do. I simply analyse a market for all possibilities and by process of elimination select the probability of what I think is most likely to occur given the information I have available at the moment. And please remember, that information is constantly changing and can affect my opinion very quickly. ....I expect this market will become VERY volatile and brutal over the next few months. You must watch your positions daily. SELL when the targets are hit. Don't be greedy. We have a very long way to go with this market over the next few years. I will try to have short comments as needed over the next few months. Happy trades............Chaz Sept 15, 2011

Thank you Chaz! We all appreciate your contribution to this blog.

BIG REVERSAL

There was a large swing near the close of the market today. This type of price action usually has some follow through which is why I would expect the market to rally up a bit tomorrow...and perhaps over the next few days. There was a similar reversal pattern on September 6th, but the rally only lasted 1 day. Today was a stronger reversal pattern because the market was able to close higher than where it opened this morning. There are two areas to look at. One would be the 1200 area. The other would be around 1250 (top of the corrective range...see last Thursday's chart). I don't think we will rally that high, but we have to consider it a possibility. You could try to play the expected rally, but the safest entry for that trade would have been at the close today. The safest play here is to wait for the rally, then set up the next round of bearish trades...just like we did last time. I still like the GLD put option trade. This trade should go lower with any stock market rally. The dollar is also gaining strength which will continue to put pressure on gold to go lower. The TZA trade (call option) may be on hold for a few days, but I still like the trade...much like the FAZ trade last week. The reward to risk will be fantastic if the market pulls back a bit.

UPDATE

Just a quick update tonight. We closed Friday at the bottom of that channel I pointed out last Thursday night. We could still rally up a bit from here in the short term...possibly back up to the top of that channel. If we close tomorrow below 1140 on the S&P 500, I think we can ignore that correction channel and start to focus on 1040 as the next downside target. I really like the chart on TZA. TZA is a leveraged inverse ETF like the FAZ. It will go up $3 if the Russell 2000 index (small caps) goes down $1. This would be a CALL option recommendation. You could put a stop below the 50 day MA and a profit target around $60 to $65.

SUCCESS STORY

It has been very frustrating time if you were short the market on Monday august 22nd ,when it look like we were breaking lows and we all knew that the market is in bad condition, i was short the market and i lost a lot of money because i did not listen to u to have money management so when i am wrong more than twice i am done. But thanks again to faz trade that kept me alive and i hope i will listen to u to have money management .
i bought 150 faz weekly calls at $1.34 on Thursday September 8 , and sold them Friday for at $4.60 and made profit of $48,900 great call Jerry thanks again:)

Naseem S.

SUCCESS STORY

Another day, another success story. I bought put options on the SPY yesterday right when the market peaked above the break-even point and I bought the FAZ around that time as well. Sold both of them today for 50+% gains. I have nearly doubled my trading account in just a few trades. Hope the hot streak continues

Mike

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry I have taken your course, thanks for your help. I bought calls on gld and gold, gdx in six days I made $3,500.00 can't thank you enough.

Norm From Minnesota.

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry

Thanks for the tip about FAZ last week.I Had a call on 5 contracts @ $10.00 and stop out at $20.00 on Tuesday.

100% profit a good weeks work.

R. Hendrix

SUCCESS STORY...KIND OF

WARNING, beware of wading in without training.

My first two trades had different outcomes. I jumped in with both feet on July 15th without any training yet, just reading the blog. I started out with two trades. I bought SLV and GFI puts. My GFI netted me 29.36%. But as a warning to others, I did not get enough time on my SLV put and lost it all before SLV finally turned down. So my 100% loss more than took me out of profitability. My own eagerness to jump in without any training cost me. A lesson well learned.

Again on July 18th I had better luck when you mentioned "SINA had a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern today" Being fearless or foolish I jumped in again without training. However I did take your advice to use the Aug 120/125 bull call spread. Things went well with the trade until Aug 25th when the market rolled over and nose dived. I had no stop loss so did not sell my 120 call until it had lost 88% of value. However since I had the sold call, I was almost even. I then took a chance to sell more calls in the last week and turned this trade into a winner in the end. It gained a total of 46.38%.

I got lucky on the end of this trade by gambling. NOT by training from Jerry. I am now slowing down and following the excellent training I get from Jerry. I have some fantastic numbers to post on FAZ, but I will save that for another day.

Mr. Ed

UPDATE

Just a quick post tonight. We sold off a bit today on light volume. If we don't continue moving lower soon...and if volume doesn't pick up to the downside, we could see a possible short term rally up to the 1250 area on the S&P 500. We are still in the corrective pattern and we would still be expecting the larger move down, but this possible short term upward move would cause the S&P 500 to hit the upward part of the corrective channel. If we do move lower tomorrow, I still like calls on FAZ. I'm also bearish on oil. Look at CVX as a possible put option trade...but you might want to wait for it to close below its 10 day MA as confirmation. I also like puts on the GLD with a stop above Tuesday's high. It is a counter trend trade, but I love the reward to risk. If PCLN can break above $555, it will start to look very bullish...that is only if it breaks above $555.

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry, to post on your blog for Jennifer in Colorado-

I followed your recommendation and bought a call on FAZ last week, it triggered at my exit point this morning, for a profit of over $1000! Your class and your blog have taught me so much valuable information, thank you! I am complete beginner, never even heard of option trading before I decided to take your class, so this is very exciting for me!

WHERE IS THE VOLUME?

Another big move up...another light volume day. This is usually a strong sign of a corrective rally. That said, we still closed at the highs of the day and 90% of the S&P 500 stocks were up for the day...both of which are fairly bullish. This could mean that the rally might continue another day or so. The key is to be patient here. Don't take on a huge bearish position if the market could move up a bit more. You could buy a small bearish position in case it does start to move lower tomorrow (1 or 2 contracts for those smaller accounts...about 5 contracts for some of the larger trading accounts), but try to hold off on the bigger positions until there is a bit more confirmation. I want to wait until the market either starts selling off, or starts showing weakness in the rally...a bit more than just the light volume. Friday might be the better target day than Thursday. The market tends to sell off every time Obama starts to speak...and I doubt the market will like anything he has to say about jobs tomorrow night unless it includes some form of tax cuts. I'm speaking about what the market is looking for....I'm not trying to inject a political view. If you have a chance to look at the European markets in the morning, they will often give you a feel on how the U.S. markets will trade....not always, but definitely right now. You can view how they are trading by going to www.cnbc.com and clicking on the "Markets" tab. Then click on "Pre-Markets".

I know I'm flip flopping a bit on gold, but I'm turning more bearish again....at least in the short term. I think gold will drop to around 1700 before possibly making one more push higher. You can buy puts on the GLD and use a stop above Tuesday's high. Gold is up about $21 right now which would actually help the trade. If we gap up a bit on the GLD tomorrow, it will narrow the gap between the current price and Tuesday's high. This would increase the potential reward from a downward push and also reduce the risk of the trade by getting you closer to that Tuesday high. We'll see if things cooperate tomorrow. Silver could also drop, but that chart has been harder to read. You might notice that these would be counter trend trades. This is why I am using the previous high as a stop loss point.

If you can be patient with the trade, the FAZ is looking attractive again...for a call option trade. Much like the GLD, it would be nice if the FAZ dropped a bit more at the open in order to increase the reward and decrease the risk of the call option trade. The $52 to $53 area would be ideal. Hold off on any new trades if the market makes another strong move up tomorrow. We'll have to re-evaluate things. Anything over a 100 point move in the Dow (closing price) would cause me to sit tight for another day. If we move up strong early in the day and close well off the highs, that might be the reversal sign we are looking for.

SUCCESS STORY

Jerry,

I bought SPY Oct 123 put contracts at $5.87 on 8/30 and sold half of them today after the open for $10.11. The other half stopped out when the SPY rose into the close at $9.00. Still, a pretty nice haul. Since I have become very selective, I have increased my trading account 43% in only 2 trades.

Mike

SUCCESS STORY

Hi Jerry,

After having winners and losers I have been able to double my option account in 8 months.

My most successful trade to date was: I bought 5 FAX Sep 11 53 calls at $5.35 on Aug 30;

I sold these options today for $12.50. I came away with a net of $3500 in 7 days.

I hope to do similar trades more often in the future.

Thanks,

Dave

HERE WE GO AGAIN

Last Friday we got a stronger sell off than I was expecting. There should be more follow through tomorrow. Europe and Asia were down big on Monday (they didn't have the holiday). With fund managers back from their vacations, we could see much higher volume this week. The next target is 1120 on the S&P 500. It is possible that we could get there tomorrow if we have another 500 point drop in the Dow. If we do get down to 1120 early this week, we could see a bounce at that level. That would be a good area to take profits. I think it would be a good idea to take profits at the open tomorrow if we gap down big. I've often said that "a gap is a gift...take it". This is very true for big gaps up or down. It is easy to let your greed take over and expect even bigger moves down (or up). Remember that professionals take profits. You want to take consistent profits from the market. You don't want to count on the unusual "big" moves to bail you out every time. I think that we will eventually move down to 1040...maybe on this current downward move, but this doesn't mean that you couldn't sell most of your contracts near this area....and hold on to the rest in case we do move down to 1040. Gold futures are up about $40 at the time of this posting. This early sign of fear could spike up the VIX at the open and drive the market lower. Oil should continue to drop which will put pressure on the energy stocks. Patience on the FAZ trade paid off on Friday and you could see the big move tomorrow. I think that gold (and possibly silver) could continue to spike as the market works its way down to that 1040 area. After that expected drop, we could start to bounce sideways or move between the 1040 and 1120 range for a little while. This could cause gold to sell off again. I can't predict the future and these are only things to look for...I reserve the right to change my mind if the market action warrants it.

SUCCESS STORY

Hi Jerry , upon your recommendation i bought 10 weekly nxtl puts at $3.55 and sold them today at $9 so i made over 150%, and i still have 20 more sep puts that i am up 50% , hopefully i can sell for 100% profit next week , and i love your faz recommendation couple days ago i bought 8 calls at 2.55 sold today at 4.50 . not to mention i have 50 sep calls that i bought at $4.90 that are worth $9.20 now ,I hope i will sell them higher next week , sincerely Nassem

SUCCESS STORY

Hi Jerry,   I have another success story for you.  I had been following NFLX and had made some money on puts with it recently, so I was glad when you recommended it.  On 8/31, I bought 2puts at $14.70.  This morning (9/2) with the gap down, I remembered your advice from course #1 ("take the gap, it's a gift").  Sold I sold both contracts today at $29.50 and $29.75 respectively for a total profit of $2958.88 !! Thanks you so much for all of your help!  You're amazing.  Looking forward to course #2  Mike from Colorado 

IS IT STARTING?

After being up for much of the day, the markets slid into the close. All three averages were down over 1%. I received a few emails asking if the expected downtrend was underway. The answer is that it's hard to tell. The volume was very light again...something you would expect going into the Labor Day weekend. The VIX didn't move up much which is also a result of the light volume. If this isn't the start of the decline, I still think that it is close. We might have an average day tomorrow as we go into the holiday weekend. If so, we'd likely see the selling begin sometime next week. If any unusual bad news comes out tomorrow, we might see the selling start sooner. As I said last night, there is still room for the markets to rally a bit more. If we saw a big rally, it might concern me a bit...although I'd consider the possibility of it being a capitulation of this latest counter trend move. Those that traded puts on NFLX from my recommendation on Monday will likely wake up to a nice profit. NFLX was down $20 in after hours trading due to Starz ending it's contract negotiations. Am I psychic? No. I just used some Elliott Wave analysis combined with some basic Trend Analysis...combined with a bit of luck. I was expecting a move down of this size...just not all in one day. That was the "lucky" part. The FAZ could be the next big mover. It had a strong move up into the close. There is still time to get into that trade. Don't bet the house on it. Use sound money management and trade management. The reward to risk looks fantastic. Remember that the FAZ is an inverse leveraged ETF on the financial index. This means that the FAZ will go up if the financial index goes down. This is why I'm recommending calls on the FAZ. It is also a leveraged ETF (3 times) which means that if the financial index goes down a dollar, the FAZ will go up three dollars. If the price of the FAZ options are too high, you could look at using an out-of-the-money debit spread to reduce the cost. This will cap your gains, but you could still make over 100%. The debit spread is a strategy I teach in Course 2. If you want to learn it, take some of your profits from this next move down and invest in that education. Email me if you are interested (jerry@myoptionmagic.com).

VERY CLOSE

All the major indexes are at key resistance levels. The Nasdaq even reached that major 2600 resistance level. Although there is still a slight chance we could move a bit higher, the stronger probability favors a move lower within the next few days. Gold, silver, and oil all look like they will move down as well. Volume has been very light over the last few days which could be a sign that we are nearing the end of the correction. Normally I might expect the selling to start before we head into the Labor Day weekend, but it could hold off until early next week.