Thursday, September 22, 2011

SILVER UPDATE

This post is from Chaz...a commodities trader that writes a monthly newsletter on the precious metals market. He has given me permission to post it on my blog. As a disclaimer...I (and Option Magic/Market Trend Signal) are not responsible for the content or recommendations in this newsletter. Also...a lot of this information relates to trading the actual commodities. There may be some terms or strategies that you don't recognize. This update is meant to be an information guide for those of you that are trading gold and silver...or just the gold and silver ETF's like the GLD or the SLV. This commentary is opinion and analysis. You must still use good money management and trade management principles. You must also read the charts. No one...I'll repeat...no one knows the exact future of any event on Wall Street. You must still do your due diligence. I have been a bit disturbed lately to hear of students that are risking everything on these recommendations. That is not what I have taught you. I teach trading...not gambling. If you are going to ignore my teachings, you better be willing to take responsibility for your decisions. If you have not had my coaching classes, please do not trade any of the recommendations in this blog. You need to know what you are doing first. Trading is more than just stock picks. That said, I always appreciate Chaz's opinions and commentary. Thank you Chaz!

Good evening traders. My, oh my, what an interesting day. There is only one way to describe today's action. WHAT A WONDERFUL GIFT!!!!! I hope most of you realized what was happening and loaded up on Dec and March calls. There is so much to tell you that I don't know where to begin so I'll just dive in and trust you've learned enough by now to put it all together. .......... Today is a classic textbook example of why we do not trade contracts. This mornings open on the Dec contract was 39.67 and the close was 36.57. That's a 310 point loss. You would have lost $15,500.00 on EACH contract in your portfolio. Right now, your broker would be screaming at you to sell your house to cover your massive margin call. ...But... we own options, not contracts. Our options are temporarily out of the money but we still OWN them and no one is yelling at us. ....What we saw today was computer rigged high frequency trading designed to shake traders out of their positions by trying to panic them into selling. I don't think the shorts were able to buy back very many positions today. The ferocity of this attack was a little surprising but also VERY telling. It is very clear that the shorts are in a panic stage and want to cover as many positions as they can. I'm pretty sure the 30 year long manipulation in the metals market will end very soon . Possibly on Sept 27th. Thats expiration day......Now this is interesting. The uptrend line on the daily and weekly Dec chart has been broken but not on the monthly. That line is VERY solid. This bodes well. It means that this market is about to get VERY volitile. Today may well have been the opening gate. A few days ago I told you that any sell off would be very short lived. I managed to get filled on a very nice position today but I had to pay almost twice its theoretic value. I have outstanding orders more than double those I got filled on so I hope the shorts hit this market again tomorrow but I don't have my hopes up. I think it is probable that the worst is over but I hope not. I'd really like to see the rest of my orders filled. My offers are well above theoretic value. The very fact that these orders are not being filled makes it clear that panic is in session in the church of the shorts. They have raised the dead only to discover they have raised themselves. ......Let me make this VERY clear.... This sell off WILL be VERY short lived. I will not be surprised to see silver back near the 40.50 area by next Tuesdays close. Whether or not it is , is irrelevant. What matters is this market is about to get VERY volitile. Remember to take profits as I suggested when the targets are hit. Reread the other days newsletter to reconsider my suggestions. Trade as you wish but please trade wisely. Trade with your mind, not your emotions. Trade well my friends.................The following is intended for Jerry's students. Hi, everyone. The above comments are for commodity futures traders who are trading long term positions. Jerry does not teach this type of trading . If you are following his suggestions to trade along with what I teach ,then you should be trading the Jan SLV. I would strongly suggest that that you listen carefully to Jerry's suggestions in his blog and get in and out of this market as he recommends following the moving averages. This market may well be about to get wild and wooley. If you are unable to handle the mental stress of trading in a market you may not understand well,then I suggest you consider sitting on the sidelines and playing a calmer market. I've waited 30 for this cycle to come around. It's now here and things are going to be very exciting over the next few years. I'm not 100% sure the gate just opened but I am certain we just heard the trumpet blow. Its past post time. The race is beginning. Happy trades....Chaz

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