Thursday, November 24, 2011

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

I hope you had a happy and safe Thanksgiving. Just a reminder that the markets will only be open for a half day tomorrow. I normally don't trade on the Friday after Thanksgiving since everyone is usually on vacation...but I will possibly make a few trades if the market manages to rally tomorrow. With the markets breaking support last week, I think that any rally presents an opportunity to buy puts. This market looks like it wants to go lower. If we get a "Santa Clause" rally this year, it might just be a short one...a rally within the downtrend. Make sure that you buy some time with any put option trade you make...at least January expiration. This doesn't mean that you need to go out to April, but you need to give yourself some time in case the market does rally up a bit. Usually this time of year is fairly bullish, so it is possible that we rally up a bit or move sideways for a few days or even weeks. If the market does manage to tread water through the holiday season, it would likely start to collapse early in January....thus the reason for the January expiration. Buying the extra time does not mean that we ignore money and trade management decisions. We aren't going to bet everything on a world economic collapse. However, the conditions have turned considerably bearish. If you have been patient over the last few weeks, your patience will likely be rewarded. The market is very oversold after last week's drop. We'd love to see a snap back rally here. If we get it, look to buy puts on SPY, DIA, and QQQ...or calls on FAZ or TZA. If we drop more on Friday or Monday, you could buy some puts...but only buy a small position. We'd like to get more aggressive on the rallies, not the drops. Gold and silver also look like they could continue to drop. You could look to buy puts on the GLD or SLV.

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