I was kind of joking (in yesterday's post) about getting a 300 point rally today. We only got 256. Sorry for being so far off. We are up almost 500 points since Monday. Now is the time to make money!! Let me review Monday night's recommended patterns...STX up 8%, WDC up 6%, CTB up 15%!!, MFE up 6%, STEC up 5%, AAPL up 4% ($5 in two days!), AMZN up 4%, GOOG up 4% ($15 in two days!!), BIDU up 9%!! ($26 in two days!!!), GS up 5% ($7 in two days), MS up 5%, AXP up 14%!!!, and XLF up 5%. I added IBM last night and it was up 4% in one day! That's a lot of big moves. Send in your success stories so that I can get them posted. What we saw to day was more short covering than real buying, but I think the real buying is coming. It looks like the market is starting to trend again and we could start breaking out of this sideways trend we've been in for the last couple of months. We saw a spike up in the VIX today. A spike up is usually associated with fear...and often a move down in the market. What the spike in the VIX tells me is that a whole lot of traders were expecting a continued trend down (and I was one of them). Today's move caused a spike in implied volatility...is the market going to continue to go up several hundred points?...or is it a suckers rally and we are going to crash back down? This is what the traders are contemplating and what is causing the spike in the uncertainty. Mostly I think traders realized that we probably won't go down any time soon and they are scrambling to get out of short positions or hedge themselves on trades they are still in. This is why I am getting very aggressive in my admonition to start getting into trades. We are only in the first week of earnings. We still have big reports coming out tomorrow and Friday...and a lot next week. If you made big gains over the last two days, sell some of the positions and take some profits...but also hold on to a few contracts over the next few days. For new positions, look for any pause or pull back as a good reason to get in...but don't wait for too much of a pullback. We might continue to make some big moves. I think this is similar to the move back in early March. This is the time to get more aggressive and to put more money into the market. Don't get crazy on me though...you still need to use stops and realize that I could be wrong...but I don't think I am. Tech is exploding, Financials are close behind (although I still want to see the JPM, BAC, and C numbers), and Commodities (especially energy) could be next. I still like those previous recommendations. I will add FLR, BUCY, FCX, WFC, RAX, ARST, EJ, COF, BLK, EQIX, ROK, RVBD, VCLK, and STAR. Watch the market open tomorrow if you can. JPM should report earnings before the market opens and it will probably set the tone for the rest of the day...especially for financials. GOOG and IBM should announce after the market closes. If the market pulls back at all tomorrow, look at that as a GREAT OPPORTUNITY to get set up for Friday. If we get a huge move tomorrow in the markets, it might make it difficult for another huge move on Friday...especially with Friday being June option expiration...so you would want to take some profits at the end of the day. Try to buy out a couple of months (expiration) if you can. The volatility is pretty high for current month options...July and August. If you can go out to September and October, you might be better off...even if they will cost you more money. You probably won't hold on to them that long, but you will have less of a chance to get hit by a volatility vacuum. GET OFF THE SIDELINES!
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
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