Tuesday, July 14, 2009

MARKET PAUSE

Today was a normal consolidation move after yesterday's rally. Watch the open tomorrow (if you can). The market could gap up due to the positive earnings report from Intel. Intel was up another 7% in after hours trading when their report came out. If you had a trade in INTC, you might consider selling at the open if it has a big gap up. Usually when stocks gap up in a big way (after their earnings report), they often begin to quickly sell off as the professionals take their profits. If Intel does this, it could cause the whole market to do it as well. In other words, the market could gap up at the open and begin to sell off. Intel's news was good, but the market would probably need another catalyst to take it higher tomorrow. I don't see any key company reporting tomorrow...which could cause the market to pull back a little. I like the Technology sector during this earnings season. Intel was the first...Google and IBM are on Thursday...and AAPL and AMZN are next week. Keep an eye in financials as well. They are a bit riskier due to the uncertainty of the other financial stocks (we knew GS would blow away their numbers). I like all the bullish ABC patterns I see, but the true test will be on Thursday and Friday when JPM, C, and BAC all report. These ABC patterns could lead to another spike in financials...or they could implode. Many of these financials are below their 50 day moving average which make the trades a bit riskier. Use stops and don't hold on if they don't move much. These stocks will probably move quickly...one way or the other. There probably won't be any small moves up or down once the announcement is made. If there is a small move, I would look at it as a reason to bail...not a reason to give it one more day. A gap up in the morning tomorrow...followed by a pull back by the end of the day...this would set the market up for a strong possible bullish move going into the big announcements on Thursday and Friday. If a sell off tomorrow goes below yesterday's opening price, then I would have to rethink any expected rally on Thursday and/or Friday. Who knows...we could just go up 300 points tomorrow and get it all over with. I still like most of yesterday's picks. Especially CTB, MFE, and BIDU. Today's move allowed a great chance to get into a lot of them. I'll add IBM to that list. I might be a little early on this one (it might need some more confirmation), but I like the report from INTC and I think it could help rally a lot of the tech stocks.

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