BEARS MIGHT NEED TO BE PATIENT

So much for saying it wasn't probably that we would get another move up. It looks now like we are in the "C" wave of a bearish ABC pattern. This became clear early on today as the market began to stage a strong rally. The volume is still pretty light and we've seen these rallies before in the last few weeks. The 1100 target area should be broken tomorrow. I anticipate that the market will have another up day tomorrow. I'm now looking at the 1120 area as the next target. I still think we are close, but the expected sell off might now happen sometime next week. A rally to the 1120 area would fill in a gap on May 20th. It would also be near the .618 retracement. There is an outside possibility that the market could rally to around 1130 and still get the downward move we are anticipating. I won't abandon the bearish scenario until the S&P 500 reaches about 1150. If we happened to rally above that point, I would probably move to neutral or possibly turn bullish. I know I've said it a million times, but I'll say it again...trading is not about predicting the future. It is about managing probabilities. I'll also emphasize again how important your money management is to your success. The big moves always end up testing your patience. If you can pull up a 60 minute chart (hourly chart), you can see the "C" wave of that bearish ABC pattern. You can also project the length of wave A from the end of wave B and you can get an idea how far this wave C might go. If you are brave enough, you could try to play some very short term call options. I don't think I would try that if the market gaps up at the open tomorrow. I still think the market wants/needs to make another move down. We will just need to be patient for the next day or two...or possibly three.