t this is still a correction within the overall downtrend of the market. I will post a chart of the SPY. Notice the bearish ABC pattern. Notice the Fibonacci confluence levels. Notice the declining volume on each of the moves higher. Now the fact that the market has moved sideways over the last few days indicates that there might be one more move up before any significant decline might begin. It doesn't mean we can't move down tomorrow, it just means that the price action indicates a higher probability for at least another push higher. I've got the 112.60 area targeted because of the confluence of the .618 retracement and the 1.272 projection. It could go a bit higher than that, but that is the area I am looking at. We also have the 50 day MA as a possible resistance target. Nothing has changed as far as the expectation for a big move down. It is now just a matter of time. I know there are those of you (including myself) that have some July options that are causing you some concern. I don't yet see a reason to get out of them and I'm looking at Monday or Tuesday of next week to decide if I want to try to roll them out to August. I didn't use a stop on these options so I am still willing to lose the entire amount on this trade. Many of you risked too much of your overall account on these positions which is why you are so stressed out right now and probably directing your anger to me. I will continue to stress the importance of following what I have (or will) teach you...especially when it comes to money management. I have tried to warn you over and over to make sure you manage your risk. Don't mistake my confidence in an expected move as a reason to abandon sound money management principles. No one knows exactly what the future direction of the market will be...no one. We can only look at probabilities and manage those probabilities. What you risk in the market is one of the few things that you can control. Anyway, have a good weekend and wish me luck.Thursday, June 17, 2010
UPDATE
I will be out of the office tomorrow due to my race. If you are interested in seeing what race I am doing, go to http://www.ragnarrelay.com/wasatchback/index.php. I will be running leg #10 if you want to see what pain I am in for. Many of you are experiencing another type of pain...the pain of a position that is underwater. You may be tired of me saying it, bu
t this is still a correction within the overall downtrend of the market. I will post a chart of the SPY. Notice the bearish ABC pattern. Notice the Fibonacci confluence levels. Notice the declining volume on each of the moves higher. Now the fact that the market has moved sideways over the last few days indicates that there might be one more move up before any significant decline might begin. It doesn't mean we can't move down tomorrow, it just means that the price action indicates a higher probability for at least another push higher. I've got the 112.60 area targeted because of the confluence of the .618 retracement and the 1.272 projection. It could go a bit higher than that, but that is the area I am looking at. We also have the 50 day MA as a possible resistance target. Nothing has changed as far as the expectation for a big move down. It is now just a matter of time. I know there are those of you (including myself) that have some July options that are causing you some concern. I don't yet see a reason to get out of them and I'm looking at Monday or Tuesday of next week to decide if I want to try to roll them out to August. I didn't use a stop on these options so I am still willing to lose the entire amount on this trade. Many of you risked too much of your overall account on these positions which is why you are so stressed out right now and probably directing your anger to me. I will continue to stress the importance of following what I have (or will) teach you...especially when it comes to money management. I have tried to warn you over and over to make sure you manage your risk. Don't mistake my confidence in an expected move as a reason to abandon sound money management principles. No one knows exactly what the future direction of the market will be...no one. We can only look at probabilities and manage those probabilities. What you risk in the market is one of the few things that you can control. Anyway, have a good weekend and wish me luck.
t this is still a correction within the overall downtrend of the market. I will post a chart of the SPY. Notice the bearish ABC pattern. Notice the Fibonacci confluence levels. Notice the declining volume on each of the moves higher. Now the fact that the market has moved sideways over the last few days indicates that there might be one more move up before any significant decline might begin. It doesn't mean we can't move down tomorrow, it just means that the price action indicates a higher probability for at least another push higher. I've got the 112.60 area targeted because of the confluence of the .618 retracement and the 1.272 projection. It could go a bit higher than that, but that is the area I am looking at. We also have the 50 day MA as a possible resistance target. Nothing has changed as far as the expectation for a big move down. It is now just a matter of time. I know there are those of you (including myself) that have some July options that are causing you some concern. I don't yet see a reason to get out of them and I'm looking at Monday or Tuesday of next week to decide if I want to try to roll them out to August. I didn't use a stop on these options so I am still willing to lose the entire amount on this trade. Many of you risked too much of your overall account on these positions which is why you are so stressed out right now and probably directing your anger to me. I will continue to stress the importance of following what I have (or will) teach you...especially when it comes to money management. I have tried to warn you over and over to make sure you manage your risk. Don't mistake my confidence in an expected move as a reason to abandon sound money management principles. No one knows exactly what the future direction of the market will be...no one. We can only look at probabilities and manage those probabilities. What you risk in the market is one of the few things that you can control. Anyway, have a good weekend and wish me luck.
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Good Luck in the race!
ReplyDeleteGood luck Jim, sounds like fun?
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