ONE FINAL PUSH?

As you can tell from last night's posting, today's move was somewhat expected as a possibility. I didn't like the weak close of the markets yesterday as we barely closed below the 10 day MA. It does, however, look like we are in the final stages of the rally...although there could be some follow through to the upside for a couple more days. The initial bearish signal that I would look for is a gap up in the morning which is followed by heavy selling. This scenario would most likely set the top. I don't really know how or when the selling will start, I just know that it is likely to happen soon. Almost everything is going up right now in the market...stocks, gold, oil, bonds, etc. Everyone is bullish on these trades. Meanwhile, the dollar is plummeting and almost everyone thinks it is going lower. As all this is going on, there are major divergences forming on the charts. Just look at a MACD on the SPY...or just about any stock that has gone parabolic over the last few weeks. Not to mention the heavy selling being done right now from insiders in these major corporations...the corporations that everyone is saying to buy. There seems to be mini flash crashes happening almost every day....or every week. These conditions are perfect for a market crash. This coming from someone who has seen a few of them in his day. I don't know what will trigger it or exactly when it will happen...or even if it will happen for that matter. All I know is that the conditions seem to be lining up. NFLX looked very weak to day. If AKAM breaks support at $46.75, it could go much lower. If GMCR can rally up for another day or two, it might give you a second chance for a put option trade. INTC looks like a good put option trade. COST is extremely, extremely overbought. It could be a good put option candidate. SLB looks bearish if it can close below its 10 day MA. If I were to take any chance from the bullish side, it would probably be in commodities like gold (GLD) or oil (XLE)...but even these stocks are extremely overbought. My recommendation is to either sit on the sidelines a bit longer, or start buying very small put option positions on some of these stocks...or on the markets (DIA, SPY, or QQQQ). Don't gamble here. If you don't have enough money to take on some riskier trades, wait until the market turns and the VIX starts to spike up. If the market does end up selling off to 950, there should be plenty of opportunities to make some money along the way....unless there is another flash crash that takes us to 950 in a matter of minutes. We'll see how things go tomorrow.