Wednesday, October 27, 2010

WE'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE

This is the fourth time in the last month that the market has started the day way down...only to have the buyers come back in at the end of the day. The last three times the market rallied to a new high over the next few days. I expect it to happen again. I think the S&P 500 will probably make one more push to around 1200. The Dow was down around 140 points before it rallied back up to close down 43 points. That is a 100 point rally at the end of the day. The elections are coming up next Tuesday. I anticipate that the market will sell off after the elections. It could happen sooner, but I don't think it will happen this week. The commodity stocks were very weak today...probably because of the dollar rally. The commodity stocks have led this rally over the last two months. They could possibly be leading the way down as well. We'll see. I do expect them to continue to drop over the next few days. It looks like it is going into wave C of an ABC pattern. I think silver should drop to around $22. You can trade it using the SLV. Be prepared to jump in if we get confirmation for a sell off in the next few days (probably next week). The selling could be big if panic starts to set in. If inflation keeps showing up in the economy, the Fed won't be able to use much quantitative easing. This will burst the current QE bubble in the market and things could get ugly. The Fed will speak next Wednesday...a day after the elections. Next week could be a very very volatile week. Don't forget the three days over the last two weeks where the VIX closed up at the same time that the market closed up. There is some fear creeping into this market. What will be the trigger for the avalanche? Here is an interesting read: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=624C2022-E08E-11DF-B7D4-002128049AD6

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