Wednesday, July 13, 2011

UPDATE

I haven't had an update this week because there really hasn't been much to comment on. The market did pull back like I said last Friday...a little more than expected. However, it hasn't triggered many new buy signals yet. This leads me to believe that we might have a bit more selling before we start another move up. That would mean a drop below the 50 day MA. There isn't much room left for a bullish correction. If we drop below the 1295-1300 area, things will start to turn more bearish. Earnings season kicked off on Monday with Alcoa. The big hitters start tomorrow with GOOG and JPM reporting. Citigroup reports on Friday. Monday has HAL, IBM, and MOS. I'm looking forward to AAPL's report on Tuesday and INTC's report on Wednesday of next week. Intel and Apple have always been key reports for the tech sector. It will be hard to take out the May high in the market if the financials don't participate. The JP Morgan earnings tomorrow will likely tell us how the financials are doing. I haven't see the market this indecisive in a long time. The current trend on the S&P 500 is flat. The S&P 500 closed right at its 50 day MA today. There just isn't any clear trend to trade. The SLV and GLD trades worked out great. I hope you profited on them. If so, send me the success story and I will post it. If you do send me your success story email, please put "Success Story" in the title of the email and don't add other trading questions. It makes it easier to ensure that it gets on the blog. HAL is still a recommendation if you haven't already gotten in. I'd stop out if it moves below $50. The upside target is still around $58. They report earnings on Monday. Weird things can happen on earnings announcements so be aware that it could go either way after those numbers are reported. My bet would be that it would go up after the announcement, but there are no guarantees. There are a few "riskier" trades out there as we get into earnings season. If the results of GOOG are positive, it could create big moves up for BIDU and SINA. The options on these stocks are pretty expensive due to the big moves that these stocks can make. A debit spread (like a Bull Call Spread) can reduce that cost as much as 75% and still give you the potential for 80% to 100% returns. This is one of the advanced strategies taught in Course 2. That lower cost can dramatically reduce the risk in the trade. ZAGG looks like a good pattern. Health care stocks CVH and HS also look pretty good. These were all bullish picks so make sure you check to see if they are still above their 10 day MA tomorrow when the market opens.

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