UPDATE

Just a quick update tonight. Today was a state holiday so I am coming off of a three day weekend. Today's sell off was obviously due to the continued fear over the debt ceiling argument. I (along with most other professional traders) feel like this is all Washington theatrics and that a deal will definitely get done before the deadline. If the deal gets done this week, I don't know that the market will surge upward because I don't think that many traders are short the market. In other words, I don't think that there would be much of a short squeeze. I also think that there is still enough negative economic news out there to keep the market from surging upward. It really needs to get above the 7/7/11 high of 1356 before the bulls get more confidence. If the debt ceiling isn't increased by the deadline, load up on puts because the market will likely drop fast and furious. I'm not a betting man, but I'd almost be willing to bet my house that an agreement will be made before the deadline. Washington has been doing this to us so often over the last few years that it is almost comical that we keep falling for it. They create (or hype) a crisis that has a deadline, they wait until the very end to get it resolved, then they throw in all kinds of crap at the last minute and force everyone to vote for it because the future of the nation depends on it. As a trader, I try to focus on the probabilities and not the possibilities. I think that the probability is that the deal will get done. I don't see any picks that stand out right now, but I'll try to post some tomorrow. Although the SLV has moved a bit higher since my first bearish recommendation, it has also had three very bearish price action days in the last 8 days. I think that the uncertainty of the debt ceiling is keeping the price of silver (and gold) up. I feel that when the agreement is made, the SLV will start it's correction. The HAL trade is right at the target area. If you haven't taken any profits yet, you need to do so very soon. You can still hang on to a few contracts, but you need to take the bulk of your profits off the table. Like I said a few days ago, BIDU would likely rally on Google's earnings. BIDU had good numbers after the bell today and it should gap up about $10 tomorrow at the open. You could also see SINA start to rally as well. I also told you about NFLX approximately two weeks ago when it started showing some bearish price action. It disappointed in it's earnings release and will likely drop about $25 at the open tomorrow. That "riskier" bearish trade I made will payoff. One thing to look for this week....if the debt ceiling gets raised, look for a rebound in financial stocks. AXP, JPM, GS, MS, COF, WFC....just to name a few. AXP is the only one on that list that is in a strong uptrend...hint hint.