Tuesday, February 23, 2010

IS THIS THE START OF THE DOWNWARD MOVE?

It could be, but there wasn't much volume behind the sell off today. The VIX did start to spike up a bit, but it backed off near the close. There isn't too much fear yet in the selling. I did get triggered today on my 110 contingent order. I'll look to add more if this move brings us below 108, although I might add to the position earlier (perhaps 109) if the VIX spikes up or there is bad news that comes out before the market opens tomorrow. Some other nice bearish patterns include many of the financial stocks. You have high probability bearish trades in AXP, GS, MS, JPM, and COF. If you are brave enough, you can really turbo charge your returns by buying puts on the FAS or calls on the FAZ. The FAS moves three times the financial index. If the financial index goes down a dollar, the FAS goes down three dollars. The FAZ is an inverse ETF. It will go up three dollars for every dollar that the financial index goes down. The call options on the FAZ are much cheaper than the put options on the FAS. These leveraged ETF's are not meant to be long term trades. You can lose a lot of money if you try to use leveraged ETF's for long term trades. For short term trades, they can significantly increase your returns if you are right about the trend direction. Read this article to learn about the risk of leveraged ETF's: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=271892&pgid=etfarticle
I think AAPL could continue to move down to around $190 (that's a possible $7 move down). HOG is in another great put option position. Please send me some success stories if you have had some over the last few weeks.

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