Tuesday, July 20, 2010

BULLISH...BEARISH...BULLISH...BEARISH

There was definitely some wisdom in yesterday's headline. The market looked very bearish at the open, but it quickly reversed and finished very strong by the end of the day. Normally I would say that the price action was very bullish, but I said that last Thursday and we had a 250 point drop the next day. For those that are losing money in the whipsaw, I would encourage you to sit back, wait, and watch the two key price points...1040 on the downside and 1131 on the upside. We could continue to slosh back and forth until we break above 1131 or below 1040. We could also continue to move back in forth until earnings season winds down next week. For those that want to rush out and buy AAPL calls tomorrow, a word of caution. Wait until the end of the day to make your trading decision. AAPL will most likely gap up at the open tomorrow due to a $7 spike up in after hours trading which followed their earnings announcement. The key will be whether or not it will move higher from there. INTC gapped up after their blowout earnings release last week, but it ended up selling off by the end of the day. If this happens to AAPL, it could lead to at least a short term decline in the stock over the next few days. If it can gap up and close higher than the opening price, this would be very bullish and would lead me to believe that it could test the 6/21/10 high. AAPL has managed to hold support around $242. If it drops below that point, it could move down pretty quickly. Gold futures are down at the time of this posting, which could lead to another move lower for the GLD. A lot can happen between now and the open of the market. Don't make any trades during the first hour tomorrow. I think it is possible that we could get the opposite of today's price action...namely a gap higher followed by a sell off into the close. I'm speculating here, but this is where the professionals start to play games with the amateurs...particularly during the first hour of trading. The professionals know that millions of amateurs will probably go out and buy AAPL at the open. Don't be surprised if it gaps up and starts to sell off.

No comments:

Post a Comment