Thursday, November 11, 2010

TRADE WAR?

Things are getting pretty heated at the G20 conference in Korea. The big conflict is between the U.S. and China. The U.S. is accusing China of deliberately devaluing their currency in order to gain a trade advantage and help their economy. Those rotten Chinese...we here in the U.S. would never try to do something as low down and shameful as to devalue our currency to gain a trade advantage and help our economy. It is just the pure market forces that are driving the dollar lower...right? Well I hope you caught the sarcasm. This could get ugly. The Shanghai index closed down over 5% a short time ago. 5%!!!! The Hang Seng closed down almost 2%. The Nikkei closed down over 1%. Gold is down right now over 1%. Silver is down over 2%. Oil is down almost 2%. Now a lot can change between now and the market open tomorrow, but this doesn't look good so far. This is the type of thing that could trigger a major sell off if it doesn't get settled soon. If we do sell off hard tomorrow, watch to see if the buyers come in and push it back up at the close. If they do, it might be a bullish opportunity. If they don't come in and the VIX spikes up, buy puts. Buy puts on the SPY, DIA, and QQQQ. Buy puts on overextended tech stocks. Buy puts on overextended commodity stocks (GLD, SLV, FCX, and XLE). If we gap lower at the open (the S&P futures are currently down over 10 points), look to see what the VIX does. If it spikes way up, get out of your bullish trades and get ready to get into some bearish trades. I would still like to wait to see how we close, but we might then get into some late session put option trades.

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