Wednesday, March 23, 2011

UPDATE

The market is having trouble breaking above the 1300 area on the S&P 500. If the market turns back down right here, we could be in for an even bigger move down. If it can break above 1300, I would anticipate that the market would move more sideways. Usually the market doesn't recover from big moves down within a few days. In fact, snap back rallies after big moves down are often a signal that more selling is coming. Some of the biggest up days in market history have come as rallies within larger downtrends. The 2008 financial collapse saw big 1-2 day rallies that were followed by bigger moves down. Same with last April. The reward to risk for bearish trades is very nice right here. You can place a tight stop above the resistance. The resistance on the S&P 500 looks to be around 1300 to 1302. If this holds, the initial downside reward target would be about 1227. If the market closes above 1302, the expectation would be a trading range between 1302 and 1344 for the next few weeks. The CAT, MEE, and EOG trade recommendations have worked out very well. VLO has stalled a bit, but it is still above its 50 day MA. I also like DD, CLF, and NOV as a bullish trades if the market can move above 1302. I would also look at the financials like JPM and BAC. With the news out on rare earth materials today, you could look at MCP, REE, and AVL to make a run. They've had a nice consolidation and could be breaking out again.

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