Tuesday, September 1, 2009

IS THIS IT?

This was the question most of you were asking yourselves today...myself included. We broke through some major support (1013-1017) and closed below 1000 on the S&P 500. The VIX spiked to 29.15...the highest level since the end of June. Every DOW stock (except for WMT...barely) was down. This could be the start of a larger correction. The problem is that I felt that way very strongly a couple of weeks ago and we came roaring back. I will probably look for some possible put option trades tomorrow, but with small amounts of capital. The safest place is in cash until a consolidation takes place. This doesn't mean that there aren't opportunities out there. I've talked about the RIMM pattern. It hasn't broken out of the triangle yet, but it could end up breaking one way or another. I also noticed similar symmetrical triangle patterns in the gold sector. Almost every gold stock I've seen has a symmetrical triangle pattern. If the sell off continues, gold prices could go up as money managers move to the safety of this commodity. Again...wait for the breakout. Look at GDX, GFI, GLD, NEM, AEM, RGLD, ABX, HMY, AUY, and IVN (uptrend). For bearish trades on the market (DIA, SPY, or QQQQ), wait to see what happens tomorrow. If we drop hard at the open, be careful not to chase it...that would be a dangerous trade. Ideally, we would like to see a choppy market tomorrow with a slight rise in price. This would be an almost perfect set up for another move down. This would also allow you to get into put option trades without a huge inflation in the option prices.

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