Wednesday, January 6, 2010

MANY OPINIONS ON AMZN


I was amazed at the amount of interest in my AMZN pick from last night. This has been the most feedback I have received on a pick since I started the blog. Let me have a chance to clarify my outline and reasons for the trade. First of all, you know that I always like to get some confirmation before getting into a trade...move above a 10 day MA, break of a support/resistance line, or a big bullish or bearish candlestick pattern. Many e-mails pointed to a possibility that AMZN could temporarily break below its 50 day MA and find support at $128. If this latest move is a "C" leg, then it might not be done going down until it hits that $128 area. The confirmation that I am looking for is the $137 resistance area. If the stock can break above that price, it could signal a stronger bullish move. If it fails to get above that price in the next few days, we will move on to bigger and better things...like BBY. BBY is a bearish pattern sent to me by one of my students (thanks James P.) I really love this pattern...which sometimes concerns me when it seams so perfect. BBY broke below its 50 day MA on a strong move down in December. It then has "chopped" back up to it in the formation of a bearish ABC pattern. You combine that with the strong horizontal resistance at $41.50 (tests on April though May of 2009 along with touches in September and October) and the diagonal resistance (upward trend line starting in July) and you have a great reward to risk trade. Any stop above $41.50 would probably work. As for the profit targets, there is one at about $39, but the best ones are at $38. $36.35, and $34.50. This is a great reward to risk pattern. Thanks James!

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