Tuesday, August 24, 2010

EASY MONEY?

If you have been trading over the last month, you have experienced the opposite of easy money. Sometimes the market gives you the money easily and sometimes it makes you work for every dime. This is why I am often critical of people that come into the market expecting to make tons of money in a short period of time. It's not that you can't do it, but rather it is the expectation that it should happen. Worse yet, it is the criticism that I receive when I can't always deliver the easy money. Somehow in these sideways trading ranges, I mysteriously lose my ability to read trends and forecast market moves. These sideways trends always test a trader's patience. If you learned anything over the last month, you should have learned how important a good money management plan is to your market survival. I have been predicting a big move down for the last five months. We had a big move down in April, May, and June and we are starting perhaps the biggest move down here at the end of August. If you didn't get into your puts today during the rally at the market open, you need to look to get in tomorrow. It's not too late, but the entry here isn't as great. I'll be forced to try to re-enter a few put option trades tomorrow. I had to set up some fairly tight stops due to my flight this morning (Monday morning). I ended up getting out of about half of my positions during the early market rally. We will likely gap down at the open tomorrow. The price action at the end of the day was very bearish. China and Japan both traded lower. There is a lot of economic news coming out this week and none of it is expected to be positive. Any significant bad news could really sent the market down. I will watch the VIX closely at the open tomorrow. I haven't seen the spike yet that would reveal panic in the market. That might come tomorrow. This could be another "easy money" trading period. If it is, you will want to take advantage of it. I won't recommend individual stocks, I'll just recommend puts on the SPY, DIA, and QQQQ. Why all three? Because they often move by different percentages...and it's difficult to know which one will make the bigger move. Look at today's results. The Dow was down .38%, the S&P 500 a bit more at .40%, but the QQQQ was down almost 1% (.92% to be exact). Your QQQQ trade made a lot more than the others. This could change tomorrow. Maybe the S&P 500 has the bigger move, or maybe the Dow. This is why I like to trade all three. Also, it is easier to trade the whole market when you are expecting a big move down. Anyway...look to get more aggressive and make a lot of money on this next move down...then send me the success stories so that I can brag about you. Look at 1040 as a shorter term target. I don't expect to get there in one day, but it is possible.


No comments:

Post a Comment