Thursday, August 26, 2010

NO CHANGE

We didn't break below Wednesday's low and we didn't rally up to the 1067-1068 area so nothing has really changed from yesterday's post. We could drop tomorrow when the GDP report comes out, or we could rally up a bit and fill in that gap created last Tuesday. The downside target is still 1010...and possibly lower, but expect some buyers to continue to come in around 1040. Until those buyers get shaken out, the market could continue to chop sideways a bit right there. I really believe that we haven't seen the big move down yet. Although the market has dropped several points from that August 9th high, we still haven't seen a significant spike up in the VIX. This tells me that there still isn't significant fear in the market that things could go lower. Now some of you might interpret that as being bullish, but technically the market hasn't shown any bullish signs over the last week. All the market has done is drop below key support levels. To me everything points to an explosive move down. If we end up getting an explosive move up instead (a 250 or 300 point rally in the Dow), I would have to stop out and immediately trade bullish...for the short term at least. Either way, the market is telling me that it is about to make an explosive move. I hope you are positioned to profit from it.

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