Monday, May 4, 2009

BREAKOUT!!!

We broke out today in both the S&P 500 and the DOW (on average volume). The next resistance target is about 940 in the S&P 500 and around 9000 in the DOW. I will continue to be cautious, but this breakout is a sign that the uptrend might have a bit further to go. The VIX failed to break support so I will watch it over the next few days as another indicator of the strength (or weakness) of today's move. Coal stocks were one of the big winners today. JRCC and PCX have nearly doubled in value over the last two trading sessions. BTU, ANR, MEE, and FCL have also made big moves. I missed the big move on these because I got stopped out a few weeks earlier while they were still moving sideways. That will happen sometimes...but it doesn't mean the opportunity is gone. We should get another chance. An entry at these levels would probably not be very wise...but if we get any pullback, we could capture the next move up. Just like most energy stocks, the coal stocks have dropped significantly over the last year. If this breakout holds, they have a lot of room to run. If you happened to be in these stocks over the last few days, you might want to think about tightening your stops or selling some of your contracts. That was a pretty big move...don't get too greedy. Of the stocks I mentioned last night, CLR, DNR, FCX, and MS made nice moves today. CF was okay but SOHU was terrible. SOHU gapped up but then sold off on high volume. This was my fault. I didn't know they were reporting earnings before the market opened. It will most likely pull back a bit over the next few days. The earnings were great so it could also continue the trend. Stocks posted earlier that are still moving up include: AAPL, CREE, WDC, GS, CLF, FSLR, MFE, HANS, MU, ATML, IBM, BP, RIG, APA, and SFD. Stocks that have pulled back a bit and could make another move up include: NFLX, TXT, DLTR, GLW, KSS, and ORCL. These are just from past postings. I will look to add some new patterns when I find them.

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