Tuesday, May 5, 2009

WE LOVE PULLBACKS!!!!!!!!!!

Yes we do...as long as they don't break the trend. Today's move caused a lot of stocks to pull back but the good news is that yesterday's breakout is still holding. This gives us hope that we can move up further despite the extremely overbought conditions of the market. The stock I want to brag about tonight is SFD. I told you about this one last week when it sold off on the "swine flu" fears. They are one of the largest producers of pork. I told you that I liked the pattern because it sold off right to its 50 day moving average in almost a textbook bullish ABC pattern. I also said that there was really no rational reason for the selling. That support level held and in 6 days it has gone from $9 to as high as $12.84 (today's high). That's 42% in less than a week. The June $10 calls were up 154% on just today's move. I hope you are learning how to play this game. We never know which stocks will make these types of big moves. If you look back on all the patterns I have posted, some have made big moves, some have made small moves, some have moved sideways, and some have failed miserably. If you bet your entire account on just one of the patterns, you were either really lucky (and really happy) or you are totally broke (and really angry)...depending on which pattern you chose. Since we don't have a crystal ball, we need to spread out the risk on several different patterns. Now I don't think you should spread out the risk too far...10 to 15 positions is about the max...but this will allow you to get into some great trends and spread the risk over different sectors as well. If you define and protect the risk, you only need a few of the stocks to make just decent moves in order to see big gains in your overall account...some will make huge moves. Having said all that...I don't think this is an area in the market to suddenly become an aggressive buyer. I won't repeat all my previous warnings. Take on 3 to 5 positions instead of 10 to 15. Don't get into all of your positions in the same day. That way if the market tanks the next day, you don't suffer a huge draw down in a short period of time. The patterns I am going to post tonight are pretty diversified...and I like most of the patterns. I haven't checked any recent news or earnings release dates so you might want to do that if you are interested in trading one of the patterns. They are ASIA, AMZN, BBY, DRI, KMX, and PWR. I like the pullbacks that they have made recently and the strength of their trends. Because some of them have been correcting for a few days, they might still correct a bit more...remember how long HANS moved sideways before it made that big move. Make sure you have patience and define your risk.

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