Tuesday, June 21, 2011

MORE SHORT COVERING

Quick note...I will be having surgery on my toe this Thursday morning so tonight will likely be my final update for this week. I'm a bit nervous because I've never had any sort of surgery before. My biggest fear is that I'll end up dying during the surgery. Can you imagine that on your tombstone...died during toe surgery? It's minor surgery so I should be okay. A small bone chip broke off my toe and has been causing some problems. Over the last three weeks, I've alternated between being mostly fine to unable to walk...all based on where that damn bone chip is. I couldn't take the "pain on", "pain off" roller coaster ride any longer. I apologize for the late cancellations of my Thursday classes due to the surgery. Keep in mind that I won't be able to answer any emails from Thursday through the weekend. I should be somewhat back to normal on Monday.

The price action today continued to look like short covering (lighter volume), but the close above 1295 does give the bulls some strength. It is still too early to tell if this is just a sucker's rally or the start of another move up. The good news is that we don't have to decide right now. There are a lot of good stocks that have pulled back over the last few weeks during the market sell off. I would love to buy calls on many of those stocks, but I can't ignore the bad economic news around the globe. If this is the start of a new move up, there should be plenty of chances to get in. For the bears, keep an eye on the 10 day exponential moving average on the S&P 500 index. If we close below the 10 day moving average within the next few days, it will likely signal that the move down to 1250 is underway. If we move above 1312, it will likely signal that the bulls are in control and a new uptrend is underway. I'm not getting into any positions ahead of my surgery, but I will post some possible bullish patterns that I like. They are AMZN, VMW, LAD, VHC, CMG, NSC, NFLX, and EP. The market move today could be part of a sucker's rally so please don't get too aggressive here. If the buyers return, there will be plenty of bullish trading opportunities. If the downtrend continues, you'll be glad that you didn't get too aggressive. Have a good weekend.

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  2. Jerry, I have always had that same fear before minor surgery. All I can say is that when you wake up from the procedure, you will have a great sense of relief. You might even be laughing a bit... in my case, the anesthesia gave me a case of the 'giggles' for a moment or two while it wore off! Best of luck with the surgery and get well soon! Terence

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