I'M BACK

I'm back...but not all the way back. I'm still really sore and it's been difficult to move around. I've been trying to rest as much as I can which means that I haven't had much time to look for trades. Almost all of the trades I listed over the last few weeks have done very well. I hope that all of you made some money. The market is still moving a bit choppy and there isn't much confidence in knowing where it is going next. The rally over the last two days has been nice, but the volume has been on the light side which normally suggests a possible suckers rally. Last Thursday looked like a bottom might have been established, but the drop on Friday and the light volume rallies this week has raised more question marks. The market has been stuck in this range between 1265 and 1295 for the last three weeks. The longer it stays in this sideways range, the higher the probability that it moves down to 1250. We'll see if it can finally move above 1300 tomorrow. Because of the light volume, I decided to do a put spread on the SPY in anticipation that this 1295 area will once again hold as resistance. I didn't wait for any confirmation which (as you know) is difficult for me to do. I'll stop out if we close above 1300...and probably set up a call spread. The trade was an SPY July 129/128 Bear Put Spread. The trade has a possible 200+% gain if the SPY is below 128 by July 15th. I'll likely just take an 80% to 100% return if I can get a decent move down over the next few days. I haven't seen too many high probability trades today, but I haven't been able to go through my normal routine. We'll see if anything stands out tomorrow. After the nice moves on the patterns listed last week, we don't want to force any bad trades and give it all back.