Sunday, October 16, 2011

BIG WEEK AHEAD

Earnings season will start to heat up with some of the big boys reporting this week. Don't base your opinion of the economy on Google's earnings report. They are still growing rapidly and are one of the few companies that can put up those types of numbers in a down economy. Even with those numbers, the stock sold off after gapping up big at the open on Friday. The volume was huge. This tells me that there were many professionals that were selling their positions on that news. If Google can move above that gap open (about $600), it might be able to push a bit higher. Look at a longer term chart of Google (GOOG). There is a ton of resistance at $630. This is why I don't think it is going higher right now...not in this economic environment.

I think this latest market rally is starting to exhaust itself. We could still move a bit higher, but we should see some selling this week. Whether you're bullish or bearish, you should be expecting some selling. Earnings season creates a bit of a wildcard situation. Some of these reports can cause whole markets to move higher than the analysis expects them to move (and visa versa). This is why I don't like making predictions during earnings season. That said, I still think we pull back soon. Look for some of the signals. Look for the Dow Transportation Average to sell off in a higher percentage than the market averages. Look for volume to pick up on a down day in the market. Look for the VIX to start spiking up a bit higher than normal. We'll see what happens tomorrow. C and WFC report earnings tomorrow. BAC and GS on Tuesday. With the numbers we saw out of JP Morgan, it is a good time to look at calls on the FAZ. AAPL reports after the bell on Tuesday. Don't expect a Google like move for Apple. Apple is already near an all time high. I don't see it gapping up that much. In fact, we could see it sell off. Google is stealing some market share from Apple. This might show up in their report. I'm still bearish in the short term on silver. I've included an update from Chaz and he seems to agree. He feels there could be a possible short term sell off that could be followed by a big move up. Make sure you use good money and trade management.

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