Wednesday, October 26, 2011

DON'T BUY INTO THIS RALLY

The S&P 500 futures are up big right now as a result of the "debt agreement" for Greece. I've told many of you in my classes this week that we were obviously going to get an agreement that would appear to be good news for the markets. The brief research that I've done tonight on the agreement tells me that this deal is not even close to what is needed to prop up Greece right now. Not to mention the fact that Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland will soon be lining up for their deal. Don't be surprised if we gap up big at the open tomorrow, then immediately start selling off...particularly the banks. We could move a bit higher, but it seems to me that a gap up would likely end up being an exhaustion gap. I'm not ready to short this market, but I'm definitely not looking to buy into it right now. There are a lot of mixed signals which is why I would recommend that most of you sit on the sidelines for a bit longer. For those that still want to trade, keep your risk small...and try to use option spreads if you know how to use them and adjust them. Sorry that I don't have any new recommendations, but I figured that a warning might be as good as a recommendation.

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